高市早苗胜选后的中日经贸迷局：企业如何在政治寒冬中寻找平衡

Regarding Takaichi Sanae's overwhelming victory in the Japanese general election, business circles and analysts widely believe that this makes any significant improvement in Tokyo-Beijing relations in the short term appear very unlikely, although some voices suggest that tensions will eventually stabilize.

This result has undoubtedly consolidated the ruling coalition's position, while also granting a stronger political mandate to this leader who had angered Beijing with her hawkish remarks on Taiwan.

This poses a dilemma for businesses caught in the middle of geopolitical disputes — they must tread carefully in the space between the two countries' rivalry, even as Beijing is currently weighing the risks and rewards of applying pressure.

Professor Suzuki Hajime of the University of Tokyo's Graduate School of Public Policy noted that Japanese voters have effectively given Takaichi Sanae a strong vote of confidence to continue her existing security and foreign policies, and that if China continues to increase pressure on Japan,

it could actually further consolidate her public approval ratings domestically.

Professor Suzuki also specifically mentioned that Beijing may exercise greater caution in using its rare earth dominance as a countermeasure — while China hasn't explicitly imposed export controls, the pace of license issuance has indeed slowed,

and this situation is unlikely to change because of the election outcome.

Meanwhile, Professor Charles Zhang of Fudan University's finance department argues that business activities will largely maintain the status quo, only with enterprises operating with greater caution — after all, for those in the trade business, unless they receive a clear order to stop,

business must go on.

A Chinese executive at a Japanese robotics manufacturer, who wished to remain anonymous, also downplayed concerns about further deterioration of the business environment, astutely pointing out that Chinese consumer behavior patterns are changing — even with Takaichi's victory, she won't necessarily be more hawkish than before the election,

since what's done is done, and China's position is already quite clear.

It's worth noting that this executive mentioned that after Takaichi Sanae made her controversial remarks about Taiwan, no large-scale boycott of Japanese brands emerged in the Chinese market — to some extent proving that Chinese consumers are becoming increasingly sophisticated

and are no longer as easily swayed by political rifts as in the past.

Of course, friction at the political level remains an objective reality — Beijing views Taiwan as part of China, and while Washington doesn't recognize Taiwan as an independent country, it opposes any attempt at unification by force —

this complex triangular relationship remains a sword of Damocles hanging over the business community.

Looking at the data, Sino-Japanese trade shows a subtle resilience — according to Chinese customs data, bilateral trade in 2025 grew 4.5% year-on-year to $322 billion, reversing the 3% decline in 2024, but at the same time,

Beijing reportedly reinstated its import ban on Japanese seafood and restricted exports of certain dual-use items after Takaichi's remarks.

Compared to the resilience of goods trade, the chill in tourism is much more evident — affected by China's previously issued travel advisory and large-scale flight cancellations, tourism between the two countries is expected to remain sluggish in 2026.

Data from tourism marketing platform "China Travel Desk" shows that the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan this year is expected to be only 4.8 to 5.8 million, far below the 9.3 million in 2025, and even during the traditional Lunar New Year holiday period,

only about 140,000 to 160,000 Chinese tourists are expected to visit Japan.

The head of a travel agency in Shandong province candidly stated that Takaichi's victory is indeed bad news for the tourism industry and that China's countermeasures may continue, but he also emphasized that the fundamentals of tourism demand remain solid — after all, the two countries are geographically close and Japan has unique appeal,

and once the situation stabilizes, Japan-bound tourism is expected to slowly recover.

This manager also observed an interesting phenomenon — despite the overall market downturn, business travel and the repeat visitor market remain steady, with many young, politically less sensitive backpackers still choosing to visit Kyoto or Mount Fuji, and even opting to transit through Hong Kong or Seoul

to avoid the sensitivity of direct flights.

However, this impact is bilateral — Stephen Zhao, CEO of "China Highlights," a travel agency specializing in inbound China tourism, said their Japanese customer numbers have dropped by more than half, and since the base was already low due to previous disputes and other challenges,

there is now no hope of growth in sight.

Still, there may be a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel — Professor Suzuki believes that China's hosting of the 2026 APEC forum, particularly the leaders' meeting in Shenzhen in November, could become an opportunity to repair relations — this may be Beijing's best chance to de-escalate tensions

and create conditions for a meeting between the two countries' leaders — and that concludes our in-depth analysis of Sino-Japanese economic and trade relations following Takaichi Sanae's election victory.