中东打仗，全世界的钱包都在哭

这个问题跟中东的局势有直接关系。

This problem is directly related to the situation in the Middle East.

简单说就是美国和以色列打了伊朗。

Simply put, America and Israel attacked Iran.

伊朗反手就关了霍尔木兹海峡。

Iran immediately closed the Strait of Hormuz in response.

然后全世界的油价就疯了。

Then oil prices around the world went crazy.

我们一个一个说。

Let's talk about this one thing at a time.

先说这个霍尔木兹海峡到底是什么。

First, what exactly is the Strait of Hormuz?

它是中东的一条水路。

It's a waterway in the Middle East.

你可以把它想象成一个大门。

You can think of it as a big gate.

全世界大约百分之二十的石油都要从这个大门运出去。

About twenty percent of the world's oil has to go through this gate.

这个比例非常大。

This proportion is very large.

大门一关，油就出不来了。

When the gate closes, oil can't get out.

三月四号，伊朗关了这个大门。

On March fourth, Iran closed this gate.

为什么要关呢？

Why did they close it?

因为就在几天前。

Because just a few days before.

二月二十八号。

On February twenty-eighth.

美国和以色列攻击了伊朗的能源设施。

America and Israel attacked Iran's energy facilities.

能源设施就是跟石油有关的工厂和设备。

Energy facilities are factories and equipment related to oil.

比如炼油厂。

Like oil refineries.

比如运油的管道。

Like oil pipelines.

这些都被打了。

These were all hit.

伊朗的想法很简单。

Iran's thinking was simple.

你打我的石油设施。

You attack my oil facilities.

那我就不让你运石油。

Then I won't let you ship oil.

你不让我好过。

You don't let me have a good time.

我也不让你好过。

I won't let you have a good time either.

所以海峡就关了。

So the strait was closed.

关了以后发生了什么？

What happened after it closed?

油价直接飙升。

Oil prices shot straight up.

飙升就是涨得很快很猛。

Shot up means it rose very fast and very hard.

以前一桶石油大概八十一美元。

Before, one barrel of oil was about eighty-one dollars.

现在涨到了一百零六美元。

Now it's risen to one hundred and six dollars.

一个月涨了百分之三十。

In one month it went up thirty percent.

有分析师说。

Some analysts say.

如果这个仗打到六月份。

If this war goes on until June.

油价可能涨到两百美元一桶。

Oil prices could reach two hundred dollars per barrel.

两百美元是什么概念？

What does two hundred dollars mean?

就是你去加油站。

It means you go to the gas station.

要花以前两倍多的钱。

And spend more than double what you used to.

以前加满一箱油三百块。

Before, filling up a tank cost three hundred yuan.

到时候可能要六百多。

By then it might cost over six hundred.

这对普通人来说是非常大的负担。

This is a huge burden for ordinary people.

油价涨了以后，连锁反应就来了。

After oil prices went up, the chain reaction started.

什么叫连锁反应？

What is a chain reaction?

就是一个东西涨了。

It means one thing goes up.

带着别的东西也涨了。

And brings other things up with it.

运东西需要用油。

Shipping things requires oil.

卡车要用油。

Trucks need oil.

飞机要用油。

Planes need oil.

船也要用油。

Ships also need oil.

所以运费涨了。

So shipping costs went up.

运费涨了以后。

After shipping costs went up.

超市里的东西就贵了。

Things in the supermarket got more expensive.

因为那些东西是卡车运来的。

Because those things were brought by trucks.

坐飞机也贵了。

Flying also got more expensive.

因为飞机的油贵了。

Because airplane fuel got more expensive.

基本上跟运输有关的东西都在涨价。

Basically everything related to transportation is going up in price.

这就是通货膨胀。

This is called inflation.

通货膨胀就是东西越来越贵。

Inflation means things keep getting more expensive.

但是你的工资没变。

But your salary hasn't changed.

感觉就是钱不够花了。

It feels like your money isn't enough anymore.

这是老百姓最怕的事情。

This is what ordinary people are most afraid of.

再说股票市场。

Now let's talk about the stock market.

美国的标普500指数三月份跌了将近百分之七。

The American S&P 500 index dropped nearly seven percent in March.

这是二零二二年以来最差的一个月。

This is the worst month since 2022.

有一天道琼斯指数直接跌了将近八百点。

One day the Dow Jones index dropped nearly eight hundred points.

八百点是很多的。

Eight hundred points is a lot.

这意味着很多人的投资都在亏钱。

This means many people's investments are losing money.

如果你买了股票。

If you bought stocks.

这个月你的钱可能少了不少。

Your money probably got a lot less this month.

为什么股票跌这么厉害？

Why did stocks drop so badly?

因为投资者觉得前景很不确定。

Because investors feel the outlook is very uncertain.

他们不知道打仗什么时候停。

They don't know when the war will stop.

不知道油价还会不会继续涨。

They don't know if oil prices will keep going up.

油价这么高，企业的成本就上升了。

With oil prices this high, companies' costs go up.

成本上升了，利润就少了。

When costs go up, profits go down.

利润就是赚的钱。

Profits are the money companies earn.

利润少了，股票自然就不值那么多钱了。

When profits go down, stocks naturally aren't worth as much.

所以大家都在卖股票。

So everyone is selling stocks.

卖的人一多，价格就跌得更快。

When more people sell, prices drop even faster.

这就形成了一个恶性循环。

This creates a vicious cycle.

还有一个事情让情况更加糟糕。

There's another thing making the situation even worse.

美国联邦政府还在关门。

The American federal government is still shut down.

政府关门就是政府没有钱运转了。

Government shutdown means the government has no money to operate.

TSA的安检人员已经好几个星期没发工资了。

TSA security workers haven't been paid for several weeks.

但每天还要照常去机场上班。

But they still have to go to the airport for work every day as normal.

你想想这个画面。

Think about this picture.

一边是油价在疯涨。

On one side, oil prices are surging.

一边是政府发不出工资。

On another side, the government can't pay salaries.

一边是股票天天在跌。

On another side, stocks are dropping every day.

三件事加在一起。

Three things added together.

普通人怎么可能不焦虑？

How can ordinary people not feel anxious?

特朗普给伊朗定了一个最后期限。

Trump set a deadline for Iran.

四月六号之前必须打开海峡。

The strait must be opened before April sixth.

但是伊朗会不会听？

But will Iran listen?

目前看来不太乐观。

It doesn't look very optimistic right now.

伊朗也是一个大国。

Iran is also a big country.

它不太可能因为一个期限就让步。

It's unlikely to give in just because of a deadline.

如果海峡打开了，情况可能好转。

If the strait opens, the situation might improve.

油价可能降下来。

Oil prices might come down.

股票可能涨回去。

Stocks might go back up.

大家可能不那么紧张了。

People might not feel so nervous.

但如果打仗继续。

But if the war continues.

油价可能还要涨。

Oil prices might go up even more.

到时候不只是美国人受影响。

By then it won't just be Americans who are affected.

全世界都会受影响。

The whole world will be affected.

因为油价是全球性的。

Because oil prices are global.

你在中国加油也会变贵。

Gas in China will also get more expensive.

你在欧洲买东西也会变贵。

Buying things in Europe will also get more expensive.

日本、韩国、印度。

Japan, South Korea, India.

全世界都在用石油。

The whole world uses oil.

现在全世界都在盯着中东。

Right now the whole world is watching the Middle East.

因为那边的每一个决定。

Because every decision over there.

都直接影响到每个人的钱包。

Directly affects everyone's wallet.

说实话这件事让人觉得很无奈。

To be honest, this situation feels really helpless.

因为普通人什么都做不了。

Because ordinary people can't do anything about it.

你不能决定打不打仗。

You can't decide whether there's a war or not.

你不能决定海峡开不开。

You can't decide whether the strait opens or not.

但是油价涨了。

But when oil prices go up.

你要多花钱。

You have to spend more money.

股票跌了。

When stocks go down.

你要亏钱。

You lose money.

东西贵了。

When things get expensive.

你要少买东西。

You have to buy less.

这就是全球化的现实。

This is the reality of globalization.

离你很远的事情。

Things far away from you.

也会影响你的生活。

Can also affect your life.

以前可能觉得中东的事情跟自己没关系。

Before, you might have thought Middle East issues had nothing to do with you.

现在看看加油站的价格就知道了。

Now look at the price at the gas station and you'll know.

关系大得很。

It has a lot to do with you.

我们生活在一个连在一起的世界里。

We live in a connected world.

一个地方出了问题。

When one place has a problem.

全世界都会感受到。

The whole world feels it.

这次的事情就是最好的例子。

This time is the best example.

希望打仗能早点结束。

Hopefully the war can end soon.

海峡能早点打开。

The strait can open soon.

这样大家的日子才能好过一些。

So everyone's life can be a little better.

不过话说回来。

But then again.

这种事情也给我们一个提醒。

This kind of thing also gives us a reminder.

石油不会永远有。

Oil won't last forever.

而且石油太容易被别人控制了。

And oil is too easy for others to control.

一条海峡关了。

One strait closes.

全世界的油就贵了。

Oil around the world gets expensive.

这说明什么？

What does this tell us?

说明我们太依赖石油了。

It tells us we rely too much on oil.

所以现在很多国家在发展新能源。

So now many countries are developing new energy.

太阳能、风能、电动车。

Solar energy, wind energy, electric cars.

这些都不需要石油。

These don't need oil.

如果以后大家都用电动车。

If in the future everyone uses electric cars.

中东的海峡关不关就跟你没关系了。

Whether the Middle East strait opens or closes won't matter to you.

当然这需要时间。

Of course this takes time.

现在还做不到。

We can't do it right now.

所以现在只能等着看。

So for now we can only wait and see.

中东那边什么时候能好起来。

When things in the Middle East can get better.