说到最近的石油价格,我们来看看发生什么了。Speaking of recent oil prices, let's see what happened.
现在一桶石油的价格已经超过一百美元了。Now the price of a barrel of oil has already exceeded 100 US dollars.
在世界上,这是一个非常高的价格。In the world, this is a very high price.
为什么现在的石油会变得这么贵呢?Why has oil become so expensive now?
主要因为伊朗控制了霍尔木兹海峡。Mainly because Iran has controlled the Strait of Hormuz.
很多人可能不太懂这是什么意思。Many people might not quite understand what this means.
我们今天就来好好聊一聊这件事。Today we are going to have a good talk about this matter.
首先我们要知道,石油对我们有多重要。First we need to know how important oil is to us.
如果你有一辆汽车,你每天都需要加油。If you have a car, you need to get gas every day.
如果汽油的价格变高了,你就要花更多的钱。If the price of gasoline gets higher, you will have to spend more money.
一百美元一桶石油,比以前贵了很多。One hundred dollars for a barrel of oil is much more expensive than before.
在以前,一桶石油可能只要六七十美元。In the past, a barrel of oil might only cost sixty or seventy dollars.
因为石油变贵了,所以很多东西都变贵了。Because oil has become more expensive, many things have become more expensive.
不但开车变贵了,而且买东西也变贵了。Not only has driving become more expensive, but buying things has also become more expensive.
因为送货的卡车也需要用很贵的汽油。Because delivery trucks also need to use very expensive gasoline.
这就是为什么大家都很关心石油的价格。This is why everyone is very concerned about the price of oil.
那么霍尔木兹海峡到底是一个什么地方呢?So what kind of place is the Strait of Hormuz exactly?
它是一条非常窄但是非常重要的海路。It is a very narrow but very important sea route.
这个海峡在很远的中东地区。This strait is in the faraway Middle East region.
世界上很多石油都在中东的国家里。A lot of the world's oil is in Middle Eastern countries.
这些中东国家把石油卖给别的国家。These Middle Eastern countries sell oil to other countries.
他们怎么把这么多的石油送过去呢?How do they send so much oil over?
他们必须用非常大的船来运这些石油。They must use very large ships to transport this oil.
这些大船必须经过霍尔木兹海峡。These large ships must pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
你可以把它想成一条很窄的海上马路。You can think of it as a very narrow road on the sea.
虽然这条马路很窄,但是非常重要。Although this road is very narrow, it is very important.
世界上差不多五分之一的石油要从这里经过。Almost one-fifth of the world's oil has to pass through here.
如果这条马路被堵住了,石油就出不去了。If this road is blocked, the oil cannot get out.
其他国家就买不到他们需要的石油了。Other countries won't be able to buy the oil they need.
这就像你每天上班必须走的一条大路。This is like a main road you must take to go to work every day.
如果这条路坏了,你就不能去公司上班了。If this road is broken, you cannot go to the company to work.
现在的问题是,伊朗就在这条马路旁边。The problem now is that Iran is right next to this road.
伊朗是一个非常大的中东国家。Iran is a very large Middle Eastern country.
最近伊朗和一些西方国家发生了一些问题。Recently, some problems occurred between Iran and some Western countries.
他们之间有很多非常不高兴的事情。There are many very unhappy things between them.
所以伊朗说,他们要控制这个重要的海峡。So Iran said they want to control this important strait.
伊朗派了很多军舰去那个地方。Iran sent many warships to that place.
他们把一些重要的路口都挡住了。They blocked some important intersections.
他们告诉别的国家,不要随便把船开进来。They told other countries not to casually sail ships in.
如果别的国家的船想过去,就会觉得很害怕。If ships from other countries want to pass, they will feel very scared.
因为伊朗可能会把他们的运油船拦下来。Because Iran might stop their oil tankers.
这让很多卖石油的老板觉得非常担心。This makes many oil-selling bosses feel very worried.
他们觉得自己的大船现在很不安全。They feel their large ships are very unsafe now.
如果船被抓了,他们就会损失很多钱。If the ships are caught, they will lose a lot of money.
所以有些大船现在就不敢从那里走了。So some large ships don't dare to go through there now.
因为很多船不敢走,市场上的石油就变少了。Because many ships don't dare to go, the oil on the market has become less.
这是一个非常简单的经济学道理。This is a very simple economic principle.
需要买石油的人还是和以前一样多。There are still as many people needing to buy oil as before.
但是真正能卖出来的石油却变少了。But the oil that can actually be sold has become less.
如果东西变少了,它的价格就会变高。If things become fewer, their price will go up.
这就是为什么现在的油价超过了一百美元。This is why the current oil price has exceeded one hundred dollars.
大家都怕明天会买不到需要的石油。Everyone is afraid they won't be able to buy the oil they need tomorrow.
所以大家现在都拿着钱抢着买石油。So everyone is now holding money and rushing to buy oil.
越是大家抢着买,石油的价格就越是往上涨。The more everyone rushes to buy, the more the price of oil goes up.
一百美元一桶,真的让很多国家觉得受不了。One hundred dollars a barrel really makes many countries feel they can't stand it.
如果伊朗一直控制这个海峡,价格还会更高。If Iran keeps controlling this strait, the price will be even higher.
有些人说油价可能会涨到一百五十美元。Some people say the oil price might rise to one hundred and fifty dollars.
如果真的到了那个价格,世界的问题就更大了。If it really reaches that price, the world's problems will be even bigger.
这件事情对全世界都有非常大的影响。This matter has a very big impact on the whole world.
不仅是对美国和欧洲,对亚洲的影响也很大。Not only on the US and Europe, but the impact on Asia is also very big.
比如日本和韩国,他们自己几乎没有石油。For example, Japan and South Korea, they have almost no oil of their own.
他们用的石油几乎全都是从外面买来的。The oil they use is almost entirely bought from outside.
如果石油一直这么贵,他们的工厂就要多花钱。If oil remains this expensive, their factories will have to spend more money.
工厂花钱多了,做出来的东西就会变贵。If factories spend more money, the things they make will become more expensive.
最后还是普通的买东西的人来付钱。In the end, it is still the ordinary shoppers who pay for it.
买衣服、买吃的、买用的,全都会涨价。Buying clothes, buying food, buying daily items, everything will go up in price.
这会让人们的生活变得越来越困难。This will make people's lives increasingly difficult.
很多做生意的人现在都觉得很头疼。Many businesspeople are having a big headache now.
他们不知道接下来还会发生什么坏事。They don't know what bad things will happen next.
他们不敢做新的计划,也不敢多花钱。They don't dare to make new plans, nor do they dare to spend more money.
这对我们中国又有什么样的影响呢?What kind of impact does this have on our China?
中国是一个非常大而且发展很快的国家。China is a very large and fast-developing country.
我们有很多很大的工厂,也有很多汽车。We have many very large factories, and also many cars.
所以我们每天都需要用非常多的石油。So we need to use a huge amount of oil every day.
虽然中国自己也生产一些石油,但是不够用。Although China also produces some oil itself, it is not enough to use.
我们有很大一部分石油是从中东买来的。A very large part of our oil is bought from the Middle East.
这些石油也必须经过霍尔木兹海峡。This oil must also pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
如果伊朗把海峡封锁了,我们的船也回不来。If Iran blocks the strait, our ships won't be able to come back either.
这会让中国的石油价格也跟着涨起来。This will cause China's oil prices to rise along with it.
大家去加油站的时候,就会发现油价又贵了。When people go to the gas station, they will find the gas price is expensive again.
而且如果工厂的成本高了,东西也会变贵。And if factory costs are high, things will also become more expensive.
所以中国也非常关心这件事情的发展。So China is also very concerned about the development of this matter.
我们希望他们能坐下来好好谈一谈。We hope they can sit down and have a good talk.
大家都觉得,不要用打架的方法来解决问题。Everyone feels that fighting should not be used to solve the problem.
现在其他国家都在做些什么事情呢?What are other countries doing now?
美国和欧洲的国家对这件事非常生气。The US and European countries are very angry about this matter.
他们告诉伊朗,绝对不能这么做。They told Iran that it absolutely cannot do this.
美国甚至派了自己的军舰去那个海峡。The US even sent its own warships to that strait.
他们想保护那些运送石油的商船。They want to protect those merchant ships transporting oil.
他们说,如果伊朗敢打这些船,他们就会还手。They said if Iran dares to attack these ships, they will fight back.
这让那个地方变得非常紧张和危险。This makes that place become very tense and dangerous.
大家都怕他们真的会在海上打起来。Everyone is afraid they will really start fighting at sea.
如果真的打仗了,那就不是一百美元的事情了。If a war really breaks out, then it won't be a matter of one hundred dollars.
那个海峡可能真的会被完全关掉。That strait might really be completely closed off.
这是世界上所有人都不想看到的结果。This is a result that no one in the world wants to see.
因为打仗对任何一个国家都没有好处。Because war is of no benefit to any country.
大家都在想办法,看看能不能和平解决。Everyone is thinking of ways to see if it can be resolved peacefully.
有些国家在中间帮忙说话,希望大家冷静一点。Some countries are helping to mediate in the middle, hoping everyone will calm down a bit.
因为这件事,很多国家也开始想别的办法。Because of this matter, many countries are also starting to think of other methods.
大家觉得,不能总是依靠中东的石油。Everyone feels they cannot always rely on Middle Eastern oil.
如果总是靠他们,以后还会遇到一样的问题。If they always rely on them, they will encounter the same problems in the future.
所以现在很多国家都在努力做电动车。So now many countries are working hard to make electric cars.
如果大家都开电动车,就不需要那么多汽油了。If everyone drives electric cars, not so much gasoline will be needed.
不但能帮大家省钱,而且对环境也非常好。Not only can it help everyone save money, but it is also very good for the environment.
除了电动车,还有风能和太阳能可以使用。Besides electric cars, there is also wind energy and solar energy that can be used.
这些都是不需要石油的新的能量。These are all new energies that do not need oil.
很多聪明的科学家都在努力研究这些新技术。Many smart scientists are working hard to research these new technologies.
但是这些新技术还需要很长的时间来发展。But these new technologies still need a long time to develop.
我们不可能明天就把所有的汽车都换掉。We can't possibly replace all cars by tomorrow.
在现在这个时候,我们还是离不开石油。At this current time, we still cannot do without oil.
所以我们还是得面对一百美元的高油价。So we still have to face the high oil price of one hundred dollars.
我们再回头看看伊朗为什么要这么做。Let's look back again at why Iran wants to do this.
其实伊朗也是因为觉得自己很不公平。Actually, Iran also does it because they feel it is very unfair.
美国和欧洲以前不让别的国家买伊朗的石油。The US and Europe previously did not let other countries buy Iran's oil.
他们想用这种方法让伊朗听他们的话。They wanted to use this method to make Iran listen to them.
伊朗觉得自己的国家经济受到了很大的损害。Iran felt its country's economy suffered huge damage.
伊朗的普通人每天也需要赚钱吃饭。Ordinary people in Iran also need to make money to eat every day.
如果别人不买他们的石油,他们就没有钱。If others don't buy their oil, they will have no money.
所以伊朗才决定用控制海峡的方法来反击。So Iran decided to use the method of controlling the strait to fight back.
他们觉得,既然我不能卖石油,你们也别想好过。They felt, since I cannot sell oil, you shouldn't expect to have it easy either.
这是一种互相伤害的非常不好的做法。This is a very bad way of hurting each other.
这种做法让全世界的人都感到很头疼。This approach gives people all over the world a headache.
但是在伊朗看来,他们觉得没有别的选择。But from Iran's perspective, they feel they have no other choice.
这是一个非常复杂的国际大问题。This is a very complex major international problem.
这不是一天两天就能马上解决的事情。This is not something that can be solved immediately in a day or two.
只要他们之间的问题还在,那里就不会安全。As long as the problems between them remain, that place will not be safe.
高油价对全球的经济是一个非常大的打击。High oil prices are a very big blow to the global economy.
现在很多国家的经济本来就不太好。The economy of many countries is already not very good right now.
大家都在努力想办法让经济变好一点。Everyone is trying hard to find ways to make the economy a bit better.
但是高油价就像一盆冷水,浇在了大家头上。But high oil prices are like a basin of cold water poured over everyone's heads.
因为油价变高了,大家手里的钱就变少了。Because the oil price has gone up, the money in everyone's hands has become less.
大家就不太愿意去商店里买别的东西。People are then less willing to go to stores to buy other things.
商店里的东西卖不出去,商店就会关门。If the things in the stores cannot be sold, the stores will close.
商店如果关门了,就会有很多人失去工作。If stores close, many people will lose their jobs.
这是一个非常可怕的恶性循环。This is a very terrifying vicious cycle.
所以很多聪明的经济学家都在警告大家。So many smart economists are warning everyone.
他们说,如果油价一直这么高的话。They say, if the oil price stays this high.
世界的经济可能就会生一场大病。The world's economy might fall seriously ill.
每天大家都在看着中东的新闻报道。Every day everyone is watching the news reports from the Middle East.
只要有一点好消息,油价可能就会掉下来一点。As long as there is a bit of good news, the oil price might drop a little.
只要有一点坏消息,油价马上就会飞上去。As long as there is a bit of bad news, the oil price will fly up immediately.
每天的价格都在变来变去,非常不稳定。The price changes back and forth every day, being very unstable.
做生意的人每天都在看新闻,心里非常紧张。Businesspeople watch the news every day, feeling very nervous in their hearts.
他们希望这场石油风波能快点过去。They hope this oil turmoil can pass quickly.
但是从现在的情况来看,可能还要等很长时间。But judging from the current situation, it might still take a long time to wait.