厄尔尼诺：太平洋的海水变热，如何搅乱全球的天气？

很多人都听过这个名字，但不一定说得清它到底是什么。

Many have heard the name but can't quite explain what it actually is.

简单来说，厄尔尼诺就是太平洋的海水，反常地变热了。

Simply put, El Niño is the Pacific's water warming abnormally.

我们先说说这个名字的来历，还挺有意思的。

Let's start with where the name comes from — it's rather interesting.

很久以前，南美洲秘鲁的渔民发现，每隔几年，海水就会变得特别暖。

Long ago, fishermen in Peru, South America, noticed the sea grew unusually warm every few years.

而且这种事，常常发生在圣诞节前后。

And it often happened around Christmas.

于是他们就用"圣婴"，也就是厄尔尼诺，来给它起了名字。

So they named it "the Christ child" — El Niño.

那海水为什么会变热呢？

So why does the sea water warm up?

这就要说到风了。

For that, we have to talk about the wind.

平时，太平洋上有一种稳定的风，一直把暖水往西边吹。

Normally, a steady wind over the Pacific keeps pushing warm water westward.

可是每隔几年，这种风会突然变弱。

But every few years, this wind suddenly weakens.

风一变弱，原本堆在西边的暖水，就会往东边跑。

Once the wind weakens, the warm water piled up in the west flows back east.

东边的海水一变暖，整个太平洋的天气系统，都会跟着乱套。

As the eastern water warms, the entire Pacific weather system goes haywire.

这里还有一个细节，很能说明问题。

There's a detail here that really illustrates it.

平时，秘鲁海边的深处，会有很多冷水往上冒，带来大量的鱼。

Normally, cold water wells up from the deep off Peru's coast, bringing lots of fish.

厄尔尼诺一来，暖水盖在上面，冷水冒不上来，鱼一下子就少了。

When El Niño comes, warm water caps the top, the cold water can't rise, and the fish suddenly vanish.

渔民出海一趟，常常空手而归。

Fishermen head out and often come back empty-handed.

这其实也正是当年渔民，最早发现厄尔尼诺的原因。

That's exactly how the fishermen first noticed El Niño back then.

这一乱，影响的可不只是海边，而是全世界的天气。

This upheaval affects not just the coast, but weather worldwide.

有的地方，会下起特别多的雨，甚至发大洪水。

Some places get extreme rainfall, even major floods.

比如美国的加州，遇到强厄尔尼诺的冬天，就容易被暴雨和洪水找上门。

California, for one, tends to get hit by downpours and floods during a strong El Niño winter.

可另一些地方，却会陷入严重的干旱。

But other places fall into severe drought.

比如亚马逊、澳大利亚，还有一些非洲地区，可能会又干又热，庄稼都种不活。

The Amazon, Australia, and parts of Africa may turn dry and hot, with crops unable to survive.

除了旱涝，厄尔尼诺还有一个更大的影响：它会让整个地球，短时间内变得更热。

Beyond floods and droughts, El Niño has a bigger effect: it briefly makes the whole Earth hotter.

现在全球本来就在变暖，气温一年比一年高。

The globe is already warming, temperatures rising year by year.

如果再叠加一次强厄尔尼诺，那今年和明年，很可能会热出新的纪录。

Stack a strong El Niño on top, and this year and next may set new heat records.

这也是为什么科学家这次特别紧张。

That's why scientists are especially nervous this time.

根据他们的预测，今年这次厄尔尼诺，很可能会非常强。

According to their forecasts, this year's El Niño is likely to be very strong.

科学家给出的数字挺吓人的：今年差不多有九成的概率会达到"强"，还有六成的概率，会冲到"超级"级别。

The numbers are alarming: about a 90% chance of reaching "strong" this year, and a 60% chance of hitting "super" level.

有很大的概率，会达到"超级厄尔尼诺"的级别。

There's a strong chance it reaches "super El Niño" status.

如果真是这样，它可能是几十年来最强的一次。

If so, it could be the strongest in decades.

上一次这么强，还要追溯到快三十年前。

The last time it was this strong dates back nearly thirty years.

当然，厄尔尼诺也不全是坏消息。

Of course, El Niño isn't all bad news.

比如说，它会压制大西洋的台风，让那边的台风季节，安静一些。

For instance, it suppresses Atlantic hurricanes, making that storm season quieter.

但总的来看，一次强厄尔尼诺带来的麻烦，还是比好处多。

But on balance, a strong El Niño brings more trouble than benefit.

好在，和过去不一样，现在科学家能提前好几个月，就预测到它要来。

Fortunately, unlike in the past, scientists can now forecast its arrival months ahead.

知道它要来，各个国家就能早点做准备。

Knowing it's coming, countries can prepare earlier.

比如提前修一修水利，或者多存一些粮食和水。

Like shoring up water systems in advance, or storing extra food and water.

还有很重要的一点，是很多人容易忽略的。

There's another important point many people overlook.

天气一乱，粮食就容易减产，粮价也可能跟着上涨。

When weather goes haywire, harvests shrink and food prices may rise.

到最后，厄尔尼诺影响到的，其实是每一个普通人的饭碗。

In the end, El Niño affects every ordinary person's livelihood.

说到底，厄尔尼诺不是什么怪物，它只是地球气候的一种自然变化。

Ultimately, El Niño is no monster — just a natural fluctuation of Earth's climate.

但它一出手，全世界都得跟着调整。

But when it acts, the whole world has to adjust.

好，今天我们就把厄尔尼诺，大概讲清楚了，我们下次再聊。

Okay, we've roughly laid out El Niño today; let's chat again next time.