超级厄尔尼诺逼近 2026：一场太平洋的"深呼吸"，如何牵动全球气候

很多人对这个名字并不陌生，但真要说清它是什么、为什么重要，却未必能讲明白。

The name is familiar to many, but few can clearly explain what it is or why it matters.

说得直白一点，厄尔尼诺就是太平洋赤道附近的海水，反常地大范围变暖的一种现象。

Put bluntly, El Niño is a phenomenon where the sea water near the Pacific equator warms abnormally over a vast area.

先从它的名字说起，其实挺有故事的。

Let's start with its name — there's a story to it.

很久以前，南美洲秘鲁沿海的渔民就注意到，每隔几年，海水会莫名其妙地变得格外温暖。

Long ago, fishermen off the coast of Peru noticed that every few years the sea would inexplicably turn unusually warm.

而这种变化，又常常出现在圣诞节前后。

And this change often appeared around Christmas.

于是他们半带敬畏地，用"圣婴"来称呼它，这就是"厄尔尼诺"这个词的由来。

So, half in awe, they called it "the Christ child" — the origin of the word "El Niño."

那么，海水为什么会突然变热？

So why does the sea suddenly warm?

关键在风。

The key is the wind.

正常年份里，太平洋上盛行一股稳定的东风，也就是所谓的信风，它源源不断地把温暖的海水，往西太平洋方向吹送。

In normal years, steady easterlies — the so-called trade winds — prevail over the Pacific, ceaselessly pushing warm water toward the western Pacific.

与此同时，在秘鲁沿岸的深海，会有大量冰冷的海水不断上涌，既带来丰富的鱼群，也让东太平洋维持在一个相对偏冷的状态。

Meanwhile, off Peru's coast, vast amounts of frigid water well up from the deep, bringing rich fish stocks and keeping the eastern Pacific relatively cool.

可每隔三到七年，这股信风就会莫名其妙地减弱，甚至反转。

But every three to seven years, these trade winds inexplicably weaken, or even reverse.

风一松劲，原本被堆积在西边的暖水，就会像退潮一样，浩浩荡荡地涌回东边。

Once the wind slackens, the warm water piled in the west surges back east like an outgoing tide.

与此同时，深处的冷水也上不来了。

At the same time, the cold water below can no longer rise.

一冷一热之间，东太平洋这个"全球冷点"，摇身一变成了暖池。

Between the cold and the warm, the eastern Pacific — a "global cold spot" — transforms into a warm pool.

海洋的这点变化，听起来不大，可它就像推倒了第一块多米诺骨牌。

This oceanic shift may sound small, but it's like toppling the first domino.

海水变暖，会把原本集中在西太平洋的雷暴云团，硬生生地向东拖动几千公里。

The warming drags the thunderstorm clusters, once concentrated over the western Pacific, thousands of kilometers eastward.

这一拖，又会扰动高空的急流和大气的波动，最终把全球的天气格局，搅得面目全非。

That, in turn, disturbs the high-altitude jet stream and atmospheric waves, ultimately scrambling global weather patterns beyond recognition.

落到具体的天气上，就是有人欢喜有人愁。

In concrete weather terms, it's joy for some and grief for others.

一些地区，会迎来异常丰沛的降雨，甚至是接连不断的暴雨和洪水。

Some regions see unusually heavy rainfall, even relentless downpours and floods.

以美国加州为例，在强厄尔尼诺的年份，冬天出现"大气河"的概率会翻倍，动辄就是一场接一场的强降雨。

Take California: in a strong El Niño year, the odds of winter "atmospheric rivers" double, often bringing one heavy storm after another.

海平面也会临时抬高十几厘米，叠加风暴潮，沿海城市被淹的风险明显上升。

Sea levels also rise temporarily by a dozen-plus centimeters; combined with storm surge, the flood risk for coastal cities climbs sharply.

而在地球的另一些角落，剧情正好相反。

In other corners of the Earth, the plot runs exactly opposite.

亚马逊、澳大利亚、部分非洲地区，则可能陷入长时间的严重干旱，庄稼歉收，山火频发。

The Amazon, Australia, and parts of Africa may fall into prolonged severe drought, with failed harvests and frequent wildfires.

除了旱涝两极分化，厄尔尼诺还有一个全局性的影响：它会在短期内，额外抬高全球的平均气温。

Beyond this flood-drought polarization, El Niño has a global effect: it temporarily nudges up the world's average temperature.

它自己大约能让全球气温上升零点二到零点四度。

On its own, it can raise global temperatures by about 0.2 to 0.4 degrees.

这个数字听起来不起眼，但要知道，如今地球本就已经比工业化之前，暖了一点四五度。

That number sounds trivial, but the Earth is already about 1.4–1.5 degrees warmer than pre-industrial times.

两股热量一叠加，今年和明年，很可能会刷新全球最热年份的纪录。

Stack the two together, and this year and next may well break the record for the hottest year on record.

这也正是科学家这次格外警惕的原因。

That's precisely why scientists are especially wary this time.

从各大模型的预测来看，今年这次厄尔尼诺，几乎板上钉钉会达到"强"的级别，还有相当大的概率，冲上"超级厄尔尼诺"。

Across the major models, this year's El Niño is all but certain to reach "strong," with a considerable chance of surging to "super El Niño."

一旦成真，它将跻身有卫星观测记录以来，最强的那几次之列。

If it does, it will rank among the strongest since satellite records began.

回顾历史，一九八二到八三、以及一九九七到九八年那两次超强厄尔尼诺，都在全球留下了深刻的印记：从加州的滔天暴雨，到东南亚的漫天大火，

Looking back, the super El Niños of 1982–83 and 1997–98 left deep marks worldwide: from California's torrential rains to Southeast Asia's raging wildfires,

再到全球粮价的剧烈波动。

to violent swings in global food prices.

不过话说回来，厄尔尼诺的强度，和它带来的后果，并不总是简单地对等。

That said, El Niño's strength and its consequences don't always line up neatly.

就拿加州来说，一九九七到九八年那次很湿，可二零一五到一六年，同样是超强厄尔尼诺，加州却并不算多雨。

Take California: 1997–98 was very wet, yet 2015–16, also a super El Niño, wasn't especially rainy there.

所以科学家也一再提醒：强度重要，但不是唯一的变量。

So scientists keep cautioning: strength matters, but it's not the only variable.

当然，它也并非全是坏消息。

Of course, it's not all bad news.

比如，厄尔尼诺往往会压制大西洋的飓风活动，让那片海域的风暴，安分不少。

For instance, El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, calming the storms in those waters considerably.

真正让人稍感安心的是，比起过去，如今我们能提前好几个月，就预判到它的到来。

What's genuinely reassuring is that, unlike before, we can now anticipate its arrival months in advance.

这几个月的提前量，足以让各国未雨绸缪：加固水利、储备粮食、防范山火与洪水。

Those extra months are enough for countries to prepare: reinforcing water infrastructure, stockpiling food, guarding against wildfires and floods.

对普通人来说，厄尔尼诺听起来或许很遥远，可它最终会通过粮价、菜价，甚至是夏天的电费，悄悄渗进每个人的日常生活。

To ordinary people, El Niño may sound remote, but it ultimately seeps into daily life through food prices, grocery bills, even summer electricity costs.

从这个角度看，读懂厄尔尼诺，其实也是在读懂我们自己所处的这颗星球。

Seen this way, understanding El Niño is really about understanding the planet we live on.

说到底，厄尔尼诺算不上什么洪水猛兽，它不过是地球气候系统里，一种古老而自然的呼吸。

In the end, El Niño is no fearsome beast — just an ancient, natural breath of Earth's climate system.

只是它每一次深呼吸，全世界都得跟着重新调整节奏。

It's just that with each deep breath it takes, the whole world must readjust its rhythm.

好，今天就把厄尔尼诺聊到这儿，我们下期再见。

Okay, that's where we'll leave El Niño today; see you next time.