超级厄尔尼诺逼近 2026：一场太平洋的"深呼吸"，如何牵动全球气候

Today I want to talk about a climate phenomenon frequently in the headlines lately — El Niño.

The name is familiar to many, but few can clearly explain what it is or why it matters.

Put bluntly, El Niño is a phenomenon where the sea water near the Pacific equator warms abnormally over a vast area.

Let's start with its name — there's a story to it.

Long ago, fishermen off the coast of Peru noticed that every few years the sea would inexplicably turn unusually warm.

And this change often appeared around Christmas.

So, half in awe, they called it "the Christ child" — the origin of the word "El Niño."

So why does the sea suddenly warm?

The key is the wind.

In normal years, steady easterlies — the so-called trade winds — prevail over the Pacific, ceaselessly pushing warm water toward the western Pacific.

Meanwhile, off Peru's coast, vast amounts of frigid water well up from the deep, bringing rich fish stocks and keeping the eastern Pacific relatively cool.

But every three to seven years, these trade winds inexplicably weaken, or even reverse.

Once the wind slackens, the warm water piled in the west surges back east like an outgoing tide.

At the same time, the cold water below can no longer rise.

Between the cold and the warm, the eastern Pacific — a "global cold spot" — transforms into a warm pool.

This oceanic shift may sound small, but it's like toppling the first domino.

The warming drags the thunderstorm clusters, once concentrated over the western Pacific, thousands of kilometers eastward.

That, in turn, disturbs the high-altitude jet stream and atmospheric waves, ultimately scrambling global weather patterns beyond recognition.

In concrete weather terms, it's joy for some and grief for others.

Some regions see unusually heavy rainfall, even relentless downpours and floods.

Take California: in a strong El Niño year, the odds of winter "atmospheric rivers" double, often bringing one heavy storm after another.

Sea levels also rise temporarily by a dozen-plus centimeters; combined with storm surge, the flood risk for coastal cities climbs sharply.

In other corners of the Earth, the plot runs exactly opposite.

The Amazon, Australia, and parts of Africa may fall into prolonged severe drought, with failed harvests and frequent wildfires.

Beyond this flood-drought polarization, El Niño has a global effect: it temporarily nudges up the world's average temperature.

On its own, it can raise global temperatures by about 0.2 to 0.4 degrees.

That number sounds trivial, but the Earth is already about 1.4–1.5 degrees warmer than pre-industrial times.

Stack the two together, and this year and next may well break the record for the hottest year on record.

That's precisely why scientists are especially wary this time.

Across the major models, this year's El Niño is all but certain to reach "strong," with a considerable chance of surging to "super El Niño."

If it does, it will rank among the strongest since satellite records began.

Looking back, the super El Niños of 1982–83 and 1997–98 left deep marks worldwide: from California's torrential rains to Southeast Asia's raging wildfires,

to violent swings in global food prices.

That said, El Niño's strength and its consequences don't always line up neatly.

Take California: 1997–98 was very wet, yet 2015–16, also a super El Niño, wasn't especially rainy there.

So scientists keep cautioning: strength matters, but it's not the only variable.

Of course, it's not all bad news.

For instance, El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, calming the storms in those waters considerably.

What's genuinely reassuring is that, unlike before, we can now anticipate its arrival months in advance.

Those extra months are enough for countries to prepare: reinforcing water infrastructure, stockpiling food, guarding against wildfires and floods.

To ordinary people, El Niño may sound remote, but it ultimately seeps into daily life through food prices, grocery bills, even summer electricity costs.

Seen this way, understanding El Niño is really about understanding the planet we live on.

In the end, El Niño is no fearsome beast — just an ancient, natural breath of Earth's climate system.

It's just that with each deep breath it takes, the whole world must readjust its rhythm.

Okay, that's where we'll leave El Niño today; see you next time.