说到欧洲最近最重要的政治新闻,那就是明天要发生的事。Speaking of Europe's most important political news recently, it's what's happening tomorrow.
明天是四月十二号,星期天。Tomorrow is April 12th, Sunday.
欧洲有一个小国叫匈牙利。There's a small country in Europe called Hungary.
匈牙利在明天要选新的领导人。Hungary is electing a new leader tomorrow.
为什么这个选举这么重要?Why is this election so important?
因为它可能会改变欧洲的政治。Because it may change European politics.
我们先说一下匈牙利现在的领导人。Let's first talk about Hungary's current leader.
欧尔班已经当总理十六年了。Orbán has been prime minister for 16 years.
从二零一零年到现在,一直都是他。From 2010 until now, it's always been him.
他赢了四次选举。He has won four elections.
他改了国家的宪法。He changed the country's constitution.
他控制了大部分的媒体。He controls most of the media.
他让自己的朋友当法官。He lets his friends be judges.
因为有这些安排,每次选举他都赢。Because of these arrangements, he wins every election.
欧尔班是什么样的人呢?What kind of person is Orbán?
他说自己是"基督教民主派"。He calls himself a "Christian democrat."
但是外面的人用另一个词。But people outside use a different word.
他们说他是"不自由的民主派"。They call him an "illiberal democrat."
什么意思?What does that mean?
就是说虽然还有选举,但是国家已经不是真正的民主国家了。It means although there are still elections, the country is no longer a real democracy.
规则已经被改了。The rules have been changed.
反对党赢不了。The opposition can't win.
欧洲的很多国家都不喜欢欧尔班。Many European countries don't like Orbán.
他们觉得他破坏了欧盟的价值观。They think he has damaged EU values.
欧盟甚至冻结了给匈牙利的钱。The EU has even frozen money for Hungary.
因为欧尔班不听话。Because Orbán doesn't listen.
但是欧尔班有两个好朋友。But Orbán has two good friends.
一个是俄罗斯的普京。One is Russia's Putin.
一个是美国的特朗普。One is America's Trump.
这两个强人都喜欢欧尔班。These two strongmen both like Orbán.
欧尔班也喜欢他们。Orbán also likes them.
他不跟欧洲其他国家一起帮助乌克兰。He doesn't join other European countries in helping Ukraine.
他在欧盟里面经常投反对票。He often votes against things in the EU.
所以很多欧洲人都希望他下台。So many Europeans hope he will step down.
但是他一直没下台。But he never has.
最近有一个新人出来了。Recently a new person has emerged.
他叫彼得·马扎尔。His name is Péter Magyar.
马扎尔四十四岁。Magyar is 44 years old.
比欧尔班年轻很多。Much younger than Orbán.
最有意思的是马扎尔以前是欧尔班的人。The most interesting thing is that Magyar used to be Orbán's person.
他在欧尔班的圈子里工作了很多年。He worked in Orbán's circle for many years.
他的前妻还是欧尔班政府的高官。His ex-wife was even a senior official in Orbán's government.
他曾经就是"体制内的人"。He used to be "part of the system."
但是两年前他突然翻脸了。But two years ago he suddenly turned.
因为一件很严重的事情。Because of a very serious incident.
欧尔班政府原谅了一个做了非常坏的事情的人。Orbán's government pardoned someone who did very bad things.
那个人跟一个虐待儿童的案件有关。That person was related to a child abuse case.
整个国家都震惊了。The whole country was shocked.
马扎尔觉得这太不对了。Magyar thought this was very wrong.
他公开批评政府。He publicly criticized the government.
他离开了欧尔班的圈子。He left Orbán's circle.
然后他开始组织自己的政党。Then he started organizing his own political party.
这个党叫蒂萨党。This party is called Tisza.
蒂萨是匈牙利的一条河。Tisza is a river in Hungary.
马扎尔有一个特点。Magyar has one characteristic.
他敢说真话。He dares to tell the truth.
他走遍全国。He traveled the whole country.
每个地方都有几千人来听他演讲。Thousands of people come to hear his speeches everywhere.
这在匈牙利已经很多年没看到过了。This hasn't been seen in Hungary for many years.
他说的是什么呢?What does he say?
他说他要打击腐败。He says he will crack down on corruption.
他说他要跟欧盟和解。He says he will reconcile with the EU.
他要让被冻结的欧洲钱重新流回来。He will bring the frozen European money back.
他要减少对俄罗斯能源的依赖。He will reduce dependence on Russian energy.
他说:"我们不想再生活在恐惧里了。He says: "We don't want to live in fear anymore."
"这个国家是所有人的。"This country belongs to everyone."
"不只是那些在上面的人的。"Not just those at the top."
这些话打动了很多人。These words move many people.
特别是年轻人。Especially young people.
特别是那些觉得国家没有希望的人。Especially those who feel the country has no hope.
现在的民意调查是什么情况呢?What's the current polling situation?
大部分调查说马扎尔的蒂萨党领先。Most polls say Magyar's Tisza party is leading.
有的调查说蒂萨大概百分之四十九。Some polls say Tisza is around 49%.
欧尔班的执政党大概百分之四十。Orbán's ruling party is around 40%.
但是不同的调查结果很不一样。But different polls give very different results.
有的调查说欧尔班还会赢。Some polls say Orbán will still win.
调查不一定准。Polls aren't always accurate.
真正的答案要等明天。The real answer has to wait until tomorrow.
就算马扎尔赢了,事情也没那么简单。Even if Magyar wins, it won't be simple.
因为欧尔班控制了很多东西。Because Orbán controls many things.
他有可能不承认结果。He might not accept the result.
他有可能找借口推翻选举。He might find excuses to overturn the election.
这些在其他国家也发生过。These things have happened in other countries.
所以很多人都很紧张。So many people are very nervous.
都在盯着明天。All watching tomorrow closely.
这次选举的结果不只关系到匈牙利。The result of this election doesn't just affect Hungary.
还关系到整个欧洲。It affects all of Europe.
如果欧尔班又赢了。If Orbán wins again.
那说明他的"不自由民主"模式可以一直持续。That shows his "illiberal democracy" model can continue.
这会鼓励其他欧洲国家的右翼政治人物。This will encourage right-wing politicians in other European countries.
那说明就算像欧尔班这样的人也可以被选下去。That shows even someone like Orbán can be voted out.
民主还有希望。Democracy still has hope.
所以全欧洲的人都在等明天的结果。So people all over Europe are waiting for tomorrow's result.
美国副总统万斯上个月还去匈牙利访问了欧尔班。U.S. Vice President Vance went to Hungary to visit Orbán last month.
这是在支持他。This is supporting him.
说明特朗普那边也在担心。It shows the Trump side is also worried.
明天之后,我们会知道答案。After tomorrow, we'll know the answer.
明天之后,我们会知道欧洲的方向。After tomorrow, we'll know Europe's direction.