说到欧洲这个周末最受关注的政治事件,匈牙利大选几乎是唯一的答案。Speaking of the most-watched political event in Europe this weekend, Hungary's election is almost the only answer.
四月十二号星期天,匈牙利的选民将投票选出新一届的国民议会。On Sunday April 12, Hungarian voters will vote to elect a new National Assembly.
议会一共一百九十九个席位。Parliament has a total of 199 seats.
最大的党或者联盟的领导人将成为下一任总理。The leader of the largest party or coalition will become the next prime minister.
这场选举之所以重要,不仅仅是因为它决定了一个一千万人口小国的未来。This election is important not just because it decides the future of a small country of ten million.
它还可能决定一个政治模式的命运。It may also decide the fate of a political model.
这个模式的名字叫"不自由的民主"。This model's name is "illiberal democracy."
发明这个词的人,正是现任总理维克多·欧尔班。The person who coined this term is none other than the current prime minister Viktor Orbán.
我们从他说起。Let's start with him.
欧尔班今年六十二岁。Orbán is 62 years old this year.
他的政治生涯非常特别。His political career is remarkable.
年轻的时候他是一个反共产主义的激进派。When he was young he was an anti-communist radical.
一九八九年,他在那场著名的葬礼演讲上公开要求苏联军队撤离匈牙利。In 1989, at that famous funeral speech, he publicly demanded that Soviet troops withdraw from Hungary.
那一年他只有二十六岁。He was only 26 that year.
那场演讲让他一夜成名。That speech made him famous overnight.
他是当时匈牙利民主运动的象征。He was a symbol of Hungary's democracy movement at the time.
他创立的政党Fidesz最初是一个年轻的、亲欧的、自由主义的政党。The party he founded, Fidesz, was initially a young, pro-European, liberal party.
他第一次当总理是一九九八年到二零零二年。He first served as prime minister from 1998 to 2002.
那时候的他,还是西方眼中的改革派明星。At that time, he was still a reform-minded star in Western eyes.
然后,二零零二年的选举他输了。Then, he lost the 2002 election.
接下来的八年他在反对党席位上度过。He spent the next eight years on opposition benches.
就在那八年里面,欧尔班的政治立场开始发生根本性的转变。It was during those eight years that Orbán's political stance began to fundamentally shift.
他从一个自由派变成了一个民粹主义者。He went from a liberal to a populist.
从亲欧洲变成了疑欧主义者。From pro-European to Euroskeptic.
从反对权力集中变成了权力的追求者。From opposing concentration of power to pursuing power.
二零一零年他以压倒性优势回到了权力中心。In 2010 he returned to the center of power with an overwhelming majority.
然后他没有再离开过。And he hasn't left since.
回到台上之后,欧尔班做的第一件事就是改写宪法。After returning to power, the first thing Orbán did was rewrite the constitution.
新宪法扩大了总理的权力。The new constitution expanded the prime minister's powers.
削弱了宪法法院。Weakened the Constitutional Court.
让选区重新划分有利于Fidesz。Redrew electoral districts to favor Fidesz.
接下来几年,他又做了一系列的事情。Over the next few years, he did a series of things.
把国有电视台变成了政府的宣传机器。Turned state television into a government propaganda machine.
让朋友收购了大部分私营媒体。Had friends buy up most private media.
把最高法院的退休年龄降低,一下子换掉了大批不听话的法官。Lowered the retirement age for the Supreme Court, replacing a large number of disobedient judges at once.
让反对派很难获得国家资金。Made it difficult for the opposition to access state funds.
用国家资源奖励支持者,惩罚批评者。Used state resources to reward supporters and punish critics.
这些措施单独看,每一个都可以找到合理的解释。Looked at individually, each of these measures can find a reasonable explanation.
但是加在一起,它们构成了一个新的政治系统。But added together, they constitute a new political system.
一个看起来还有选举,但选举结果已经基本锁定的系统。A system that appears to still have elections, but whose election results are basically locked in.
欧尔班自己给这个系统起了一个名字。Orbán himself gave this system a name.
叫做"illiberal democracy"。Called "illiberal democracy."
翻译成中文就是"不自由的民主"。Translated into Chinese it's "bu ziyou de minzhu."
他的意思是:民主不一定要跟个人自由、司法独立、媒体自由绑在一起。He means: democracy doesn't necessarily need to be bound to individual liberty, judicial independence, and media freedom.
可以有一种民主,强调民族认同、基督教价值、集体利益。You can have a democracy that emphasizes national identity, Christian values, and collective interests.
而不是个人权利。Not individual rights.
西方的政治学界对这个概念有另一个名字。The Western political science community has another name for this concept.
他们叫它"竞争性威权主义"。They call it "competitive authoritarianism."
或者用V-Dem研究所的分类,"选举式专制"。Or using V-Dem Institute's classification, "electoral autocracy."
意思是虽然形式上有选举。Meaning that although there are elections in form.
但是执政党通过控制媒体、司法、选举规则。The ruling party has, through control of media, judiciary, and election rules.
已经让反对派失去了真正的竞争力。Deprived the opposition of genuine competitiveness.
这就是今天的匈牙利。This is Hungary today.
过去十六年,反对派尝试了各种办法。Over the past sixteen years, the opposition has tried various approaches.
组成联合阵线。Forming united fronts.
推选共同候选人。Nominating joint candidates.
接受外国顾问。Accepting foreign advisors.
二零二二年上一次大选。In the 2022 general election.
反对派六个党组成联合阵线。Six opposition parties formed a united front.
最后还是输给了Fidesz。In the end they still lost to Fidesz.
那次之后,很多人以为欧尔班的统治再也无法被挑战了。After that, many people thought Orbán's rule could no longer be challenged.
直到彼得·马扎尔的出现。Until the emergence of Péter Magyar.
马扎尔今年四十四岁。Magyar is 44 years old this year.
他的背景很有意思。His background is interesting.
他自己就是从Fidesz体制内走出来的。He himself came from within the Fidesz system.
他的前妻Varga Judit曾经是司法部长。His ex-wife Varga Judit was once the Minister of Justice.
他本人在国家开发银行和大学的管理岗位上都有过经历。He personally has experience in management positions at the national development bank and universities.
他从来不是一个"反对派"。He was never an "opposition figure."
他就是那个体制里的人。He was someone inside that system.
然后,二零二四年初发生了一件事。Then, in early 2024, something happened.
匈牙利的总统Novák Katalin赦免了一个儿童保护机构的前副主任。Hungary's president Novák Katalin pardoned a former deputy director of a child protection institution.
这个人被指控掩盖了另一名员工对孤儿院儿童的性虐待。This person was accused of covering up another employee's sexual abuse of children at an orphanage.
赦免令被公开后,全国震惊。After the pardon was made public, the whole country was shocked.
匈牙利人对腐败已经习惯了。Hungarians are already used to corruption.
但是这件事触碰到了一个底线。But this incident crossed a line.
Novák Katalin被迫辞职。Novák Katalin was forced to resign.
Varga Judit也辞去了党内职务。Varga Judit also resigned from her party position.
就在这个政治地震中,马扎尔站了出来。In this political earthquake, Magyar stood up.
他公开批评Fidesz。He publicly criticized Fidesz.
他说这不是偶然事件。He said this wasn't an accident.
是整个体制的腐败。It was corruption of the entire system.
他离开Fidesz。He left Fidesz.
加入了一个叫Tisza的小党。Joined a small party called Tisza.
Tisza是匈牙利一条河的名字。Tisza is the name of a river in Hungary.
马扎尔迅速成为了这个党的领导人。Magyar quickly became the leader of this party.
接下来的两年,他做了一件过去匈牙利反对派从来没有做到过的事情。Over the next two years, he did something that the Hungarian opposition had never managed to do before.
他走向了街头。He went to the streets.
一个城市一个城市地开集会。Holding rallies city by city.
不是在大城市的沙龙里。Not in big city salons.
而是在小城镇的广场上。But in small town squares.
他和普通人直接对话。He spoke directly with ordinary people.
他听他们抱怨高物价。He listened to them complain about high prices.
听他们抱怨医院排队。Listened to them complain about hospital queues.
听他们抱怨年轻人找不到工作只能出国。Listened to them complain that young people can't find jobs and have to go abroad.
这种政治方式在匈牙利已经消失了十几年。This political approach had disappeared from Hungary for over a decade.
因为Fidesz的政治是自上而下的。Because Fidesz's politics is top-down.
是通过媒体广播的。Broadcast through media.
不是通过面对面交流的。Not through face-to-face exchange.
马扎尔激活了一个被忽略的部分。Magyar activated an overlooked part.
就是那些本来就对Fidesz不满但是觉得没有希望的人。The people who were already dissatisfied with Fidesz but felt there was no hope.
他的集会规模越来越大。His rallies kept getting bigger.
有一次在布达佩斯有十几万人。Once in Budapest there were over a hundred thousand people.
这在匈牙利是罕见的。That's rare in Hungary.
马扎尔的核心承诺主要有四个。Magyar's core promises are four.
第一,反腐败。First, anti-corruption.
他承诺全面配合欧盟的反腐机构。He promises to fully cooperate with the EU's anti-corruption agency.
调查Fidesz十六年执政期间的资金流向。To investigate how funds flowed during the sixteen years of Fidesz rule.
第二,恢复法治。Second, restoring rule of law.
让匈牙利重新符合欧盟的基本标准。Making Hungary meet basic EU standards again.
这样被欧盟冻结的大约二百多亿欧元的结构性基金就可以解冻。So the roughly 20+ billion euros in structural funds frozen by the EU can be unfrozen.
这笔钱对匈牙利经济的重要性不言而喻。The importance of this money to Hungary's economy goes without saying.
第三,重新定位跟俄罗斯的关系。Third, repositioning relations with Russia.
欧尔班一直是欧盟里面最亲俄的领导人。Orbán has always been the most pro-Russia leader in the EU.
即使在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后。Even after Russia invaded Ukraine.
匈牙利依然进口俄罗斯的天然气和石油。Hungary continues to import Russian natural gas and oil.
马扎尔承诺会加速能源多元化。Magyar promises to accelerate energy diversification.
减少对莫斯科的依赖。Reducing dependence on Moscow.
第四,修复跟欧盟的关系。Fourth, repairing relations with the EU.
不再是那个让所有会议议程卡住的"讨厌鬼"。No longer being the "troublemaker" who gets all meeting agendas stuck.
而是一个建设性的成员国。But a constructive member state.
这些承诺听起来非常常规。These promises sound very ordinary.
但是放在匈牙利的语境下,它们是革命性的。But placed in Hungary's context, they are revolutionary.
因为它们跟欧尔班的十六年统治路线完全相反。Because they are completely opposite to Orbán's sixteen-year ruling line.
从民意调查的结果看。Looking at the polling results.
这次选举确实有可能翻盘。This election really does have a chance of flipping.
综合各家调查的平均数据。Aggregating various polls, the average shows.
蒂萨党大约领先Fidesz九到十个百分点。The Tisza party leads Fidesz by about nine to ten percentage points.
但是民意调查在匈牙利的准确性一直有争议。But the accuracy of polls in Hungary has long been disputed.
亲政府的调查机构给出的数字更有利于Fidesz。Pro-government polling agencies give numbers more favorable to Fidesz.
独立调查机构给出的数字更有利于Tisza。Independent polling agencies give numbers more favorable to Tisza.
真实的结果大概在两者之间。The real results are probably somewhere in between.
但是有一点所有人都同意。But there's one thing everyone agrees on.
这是欧尔班十六年来面临的最严重的挑战。This is the most serious challenge Orbán has faced in sixteen years.
问题是:就算选票上输了,欧尔班会老老实实交权吗?The question is: even if he loses on the ballot, will Orbán honestly hand over power?
这是很多观察者最担心的问题。This is what many observers worry about most.
因为欧尔班控制着国家机器的几乎所有部分。Because Orbán controls almost every part of the state machinery.
选举管理委员会。The election commission.
宪法法院。The Constitutional Court.
甚至军队和警察的高层任命都在他手里。Even senior military and police appointments are in his hands.
如果差距不够大。If the gap isn't big enough.
他有很多办法可以影响最终结果。He has many ways to influence the final result.
比如说质疑邮寄选票。Such as questioning mail-in ballots.
比如说指控选举舞弊。Such as alleging election fraud.
比如说利用宪法法院推翻结果。Such as using the Constitutional Court to overturn results.
这些剧本在其他国家已经上演过。These playbooks have been run in other countries.
匈牙利也完全有可能。Hungary is entirely possible too.
所以整个欧洲都在紧张地盯着。So all of Europe is watching nervously.
欧盟委员会的领导人已经发表了声明。The European Commission's leaders have already issued statements.
强调匈牙利必须尊重选举结果。Emphasizing that Hungary must respect the election results.
但是一个欧盟声明对欧尔班有多少约束力。But how much binding force an EU statement has on Orbán.
还有一个国际因素。There's another international factor.
就是特朗普政府的态度。Which is the Trump administration's attitude.
美国副总统J.D. Vance上个月访问了布达佩斯。U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visited Budapest last month.
跟欧尔班举行了会谈。Held talks with Orbán.
这被广泛解读为对欧尔班的公开支持。This is widely interpreted as open support for Orbán.
特朗普本人一直把欧尔班视为政治偶像和盟友。Trump himself has always regarded Orbán as a political idol and ally.
如果欧尔班在选举后遇到合法性危机。If Orbán faces a legitimacy crisis after the election.
很可能会得到华盛顿的声援。He is very likely to get backing from Washington.
这会让欧盟更难对他施压。This will make it harder for the EU to pressure him.
所以这次选举不只是一场国内政治事件。So this election is not just a domestic political event.
它是一场国际政治的交叉点。It is a crossroads of international politics.
涉及美国、俄罗斯、欧盟、乌克兰。Involving the US, Russia, the EU, Ukraine.
所有这些力量都在看明天的投票。All these forces are watching tomorrow's vote.
如果欧尔班又赢了。If Orbán wins again.
那说明他的模式在欧洲可以一直持续。That shows his model can continue in Europe.
这会鼓励其他欧洲国家的类似政客。This will encourage similar politicians in other European countries.
法国的Le Pen。France's Le Pen.
意大利的Meloni。Italy's Meloni.
他们都会从中获得信心。They will all gain confidence from it.
反过来如果马扎尔赢了。Conversely, if Magyar wins.
那说明即使是欧尔班这样的"老手"也可以被民主程序击败。That shows that even a "veteran" like Orbán can be defeated through democratic procedures.
即使是"不自由的民主"也可以被真正的民主翻转。Even "illiberal democracy" can be flipped by real democracy.
这对整个欧洲右翼是一个巨大的打击。This is a huge blow to the entire European right wing.
所以无论结果如何。So regardless of the outcome.
四月十二号都会是欧洲政治的一个转折点。April 12 will be a turning point in European politics.
一边是过去二十年建立起来的"不自由的民主"模式。On one side is the "illiberal democracy" model built over the past twenty years.
另一边是一个从体制内部爆发的改革浪潮。On the other side is a reform wave erupting from within the system.
明天晚上我们就会知道。We'll know tomorrow night.
但是无论谁赢。But regardless of who wins.
有一件事已经确定了。One thing has already been determined.
就是欧尔班的十六年统治不再是不可挑战的。That Orbán's sixteen-year rule is no longer unchallengeable.
它已经被动摇了。It has already been shaken.
接下来看的是。What to watch next is.
这个动摇会变成崩塌。Whether this shaking will become a collapse.
答案就在明天的投票箱里。The answer lies in tomorrow's ballot boxes.