今天我们聊一件刚刚发生的大事——特朗普访华。Today we're talking about something that just happened — Trump's visit to China.
这是他这一任期内,第二次跟习主席见面。This is his second meeting with President Xi in this term.
但是第一次是在中国。But the first one on Chinese soil.
而且,距离上一次美国总统来中国,已经九年了。And it's been nine years since a US president last came to China.
九年这个时间不短,所以这件事,全世界都在盯着看。Nine years isn't short, so the whole world has been watching this.
我们一件事一件事地说。Let's go through it one thing at a time.
第一件事,他来了多久?First: how long did he stay?
他来了三天。He stayed three days.
五月十三号下午到北京。Arrived in Beijing the afternoon of May 13.
五月十四号在人民大会堂,跟习主席谈了一整天。On May 14, he spent the whole day talking with Xi at the Great Hall of the People.
五月十五号上午就回美国了。On the morning of May 15, he flew back to the US.
来去匆匆,但是排得很满。A quick trip, but tightly packed.
第二件事,他不是自己来的,他带了一个非常豪华的团。Second thing: he didn't come by himself — he brought a very high-powered group.
什么意思?What does that mean?
就是他不光带了政府的人,还带了一堆美国大公司的老板。It means besides government officials, he brought a bunch of bosses of big American companies.
你听几个名字:Listen to a few names:
马斯克,特斯拉的老板;Musk, the boss of Tesla;
库克,苹果的老板;Cook, the boss of Apple;
黄仁勋,英伟达的老板,就是做 AI 芯片的那个;Jensen Huang, the boss of Nvidia, the AI chip company;
还有摩根大通的杰米·戴蒙。and Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan.
这些人都是美国商界的顶流。These people are the top tier of American business.
他们为什么要跟着总统来?Why did they have to come with the president?
道理其实很简单。The reason is actually simple.
他们的公司都离不开中国。Their companies can't live without China.
有的要卖东西到中国,有的要从中国买东西,有的工厂就建在中国。Some sell things to China, some buy things from China, some have their factories in China.
所以他们一起来,是给一个信号。So them coming together is a signal.
信号是:不管两国政府吵成什么样,我们这些公司,还是想跟中国做生意,还是不想脱钩。The signal is: no matter how badly the two governments fight, we — these companies — still want to do business with China and don't want to decouple.
第三件事,他们到底谈成了什么?Third thing: what did they actually agree on?
第一块是生意。The first piece is business.
两国签了一堆协议,加起来超过两千五百亿美元。The two countries signed a stack of agreements totaling over 250 billion dollars.
最大的两笔是这样的。The two biggest are these.
一笔在美国的西维吉尼亚州,中国的公司要在那里投资八百四十亿,建天然气厂和化工厂。One in West Virginia, USA, where Chinese companies will invest 84 billion to build gas and chemical plants.
另一笔在阿拉斯加州,中国要在那里投资四百三十亿,建液化天然气工厂。The other in Alaska, where China will invest 43 billion to build an LNG plant.
这两个数字加起来,超过一千两百亿。Add those two numbers up — over 120 billion.
说白了,就是中国的钱,去美国建工厂。Plain and simple: Chinese money goes to the US to build factories.
工厂建好了,再把那里的能源卖回中国。Once the factories are built, the energy from there gets sold back to China.
两边都赚,两边都有面子。Both sides earn, both sides save face.
第二块,是中东,特别是霍尔木兹海峡。The second piece is the Middle East — especially the Strait of Hormuz.
那个地方为什么重要?Why is that place important?
因为全世界很大一部分的石油,都要从那里走。Because a huge chunk of the world's oil has to pass through there.
最近那里不太平。Recently that place hasn't been peaceful.
有人想在那里收"过路费",甚至想封掉。Some want to charge "tolls" there, or even block it off.
中美两边都不愿意。Neither China nor the US wants that.
所以这次他们达成共识:霍尔木兹必须开放,不能军事化,不能搞封锁。So this time they reached consensus: Hormuz must stay open, can't be militarized, can't be blockaded.
这一点,看上去是中东的事,但是对中国的工厂、对美国的家庭、对欧洲的电价,都直接相关。This — it looks like a Middle East issue, but it's directly tied to factories in China, families in America, and electricity prices in Europe.
第三块,也是最有意思的一块——两国关系怎么定位?The third piece, and the most interesting one — how do you define the bilateral relationship?
习主席提了一个新词,叫"建设性战略稳定关系"。Xi proposed a new term: "Constructive Strategic Stability Relationship."
这八个字听着挺学术,我给你翻译成人话。Those eight characters sound very academic, so let me translate them into plain talk.
意思就是:我们不一定要做兄弟,也别假装是朋友。The meaning is: we don't necessarily have to be brothers, and we shouldn't pretend to be friends.
但是我们承认,我们俩都很大,谁也吃不掉谁。But we acknowledge we are both huge, and neither of us can swallow the other.
所以我们要稳,要有建设性。So we need to be stable, and constructive.
什么叫建设性?What does "constructive" mean?
就是吵归吵,该做的事还得做。It means even when you argue, the work that needs doing still gets done.
该做生意做生意,该开会开会,不要动不动就翻桌子。Do business when business needs doing, hold meetings when meetings need holding, don't flip the table at every disagreement.
什么叫稳定?What does "stable" mean?
就是别让情绪上头,别让一个突发事件,就把两国关系打回原形。It means don't let emotions take over, and don't let one sudden incident knock the whole relationship back to square one.
这八个字,应该会是未来三年中美关系的主旋律。These eight characters will probably be the main theme of US-China relations for the next three years.
习主席还提了一个老词,叫"修昔底德陷阱"。Xi also brought up an older term: the "Thucydides Trap."
这个词来自古希腊,意思是:一个老牌强国,跟一个新崛起的强国,最后大概率会打起来。That term comes from ancient Greece, and the idea is: an established power and a newly rising power will most likely end up at war.
因为老的怕被取代,新的觉得受了委屈。Because the old one is afraid of being replaced, and the new one feels mistreated.
习主席的意思是:这条路,我们不走。Xi's meaning is: that road, we don't take.
特朗普这边,没怎么接这个词。On Trump's side, he didn't really engage with this concept.
他更喜欢说自己擅长的话:He prefers to say what he's good at:
"我跟习主席关系特别好,我们的关系比历史上任何时候都好。"My relationship with President Xi is excellent — our relationship is better than at any time in history."
他还说,这次签的协议"非常棒"。He also said the agreements signed this time are "fantastic."
听起来很热闹,但是有的人不太买账。Sounds lively, but some people aren't buying it.
因为这次会谈,没有发联合声明。Because this round of talks didn't produce a joint statement.
什么叫联合声明?What's a joint statement?
就是两国一起签字、一起对外说同一句话的那种正式文件。It's the kind of formal document where both countries sign together and say the same thing to the outside world.
这次没有。This time, there wasn't one.
两边各自开发布会,各说各的。Each side held its own press briefing and said its own piece.
说明很多事,其实没真的谈拢。It means a lot of things weren't actually agreed on.
谈拢的,大家高调说出来;没谈拢的,谁也不愿意写在纸上。What was agreed, everyone announced loudly; what wasn't, no one wanted to put on paper.
具体哪些没谈拢呢?Specifically, what wasn't agreed on?
比方说芯片、台湾、南海、关税的细节。Things like chips, Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the details of tariffs.
这些核心矛盾,都没有彻底解决。None of these core conflicts have been fully resolved.
但是话又说回来,两国领导人面对面谈了一整天。That said, the two leaders did sit face to face and talk for a whole day.
没有摔门,没有冷脸,签了这么多生意,还提了一个全新的关系定位。No slammed doors, no cold stares, a stack of deals signed, and a brand new framing of the relationship.
这本身,就已经比过去几年好太多了。That alone is already a lot better than the past few years.
最后我想说一点感受。Finally I want to share a feeling.
我们这一代人,习惯了中美之间气氛紧张,习惯了打贸易战、打科技战。Our generation has gotten used to tense US-China relations and gotten used to trade wars and tech wars.
有时候听新闻,都会觉得心情很重。Sometimes listening to the news feels heavy.
但是大国之间,真正的成熟,不是天天拥抱,也不是天天对骂。But between great powers, real maturity isn't daily hugs, and it isn't daily yelling.
而是承认彼此不可能消失,然后坐下来,慢慢地、不浪漫地、不完美地,处理一件一件具体的事。It's acknowledging that the other can't disappear, then sitting down to handle one concrete issue at a time — slowly, unromantically, imperfectly.
这次访华,就是这个样子。This visit was exactly that.
不浪漫,不完美,但是真实。Unromantic, imperfect, but real.
也许这就是未来几年,中美能给世界最好的一份礼物了。Maybe this is the best gift the US and China can give the world for the next few years.
今天就聊到这里。That's all for today.
明天再聊。Talk again tomorrow.