至暗时刻的古巴：特朗普的石油封锁，与一座海岛的能源崩溃

简单一句话概括：整个国家，正在一次又一次地陷入全岛大停电。

In a nutshell: the entire country keeps falling into island-wide blackouts.

就在这个七月，短短一周之内，古巴全境停电了两次；而从年初算起，这样的全国性停电，已经发生了四回。

This very July, within a single week, all of Cuba went dark twice; and counting from the start of the year, such nationwide blackouts have occurred four times.

每一次拉闸，整座岛屿在夜里都会沉入一片彻底的黑暗。

Each time the grid drops, the whole island sinks into total darkness at night.

一个国家，怎么会沦落到连电都发不出来的地步？

How does a country fall to the point of being unable to even generate power?

追根溯源，问题出在石油上。

Trace it to the source, and the problem lies with oil.

古巴的发电，绝大部分依赖燃烧石油，而它本国的产量，只够满足四成上下，剩下的一大半，长期都要靠进口。

Cuba's power generation relies overwhelmingly on burning oil, yet its own output covers only around 40%; the larger remainder has long depended on imports.

偏偏就是这条进口的生命线，被人从外部硬生生地掐断了。

And it is precisely this import lifeline that has been forcibly severed from outside.

动手的，是美国和特朗普政府。

The one who did it is the US and the Trump administration.

今年年初，特朗普签署了一道行政命令，把古巴定性为"异常且重大的威胁"，等于对它下达了一道事实上的"石油封锁令"。

Early this year, Trump signed an executive order branding Cuba an "unusual and extraordinary threat" — effectively a de facto "oil blockade."

他撂下狠话：哪个国家胆敢向古巴供油，美国就对其加征高额关税。

He issued a stark warning: any country that dares supply Cuba with oil, the US will hit with hefty tariffs.

在这样的威胁之下，各国纷纷掂量利害，不愿为古巴得罪美国，纷纷停止了供应。

Under such threats, nations weighed the stakes and, unwilling to offend the US over Cuba, halted supplies one after another.

过去，长期接济古巴的，是同属左翼阵营的委内瑞拉。

In the past, the one that long propped up Cuba was fellow-leftist Venezuela.

可后来，特朗普对委内瑞拉同样出手，以军事行动赶走了那里的领导人。

But later, Trump moved on Venezuela as well, ousting its leader through military action.

自顾不暇的委内瑞拉，也随之切断了对古巴的石油与资金支持。

Venezuela, unable even to save itself, then cut off its oil and financial support to Cuba.

几条输血管一同被掐断，古巴的油库，便以肉眼可见的速度见了底。

With these lifelines severed together, Cuba's oil reserves ran dry at a visible pace.

从年初至今，只有一艘俄罗斯油轮，在三月为它送去过一船石油。

Since the start of the year, only one Russian tanker delivered it a single shipload of oil, back in March.

更雪上加霜的是，古巴那套电网本就积重难返——大部分设施还停留在冷战年代，早已老化不堪、频频故障。

To make matters worse, Cuba's grid was already beyond repair — most of its infrastructure stuck in the Cold War era, long decrepit and constantly failing.

旧网加断油，等于把这个国家推向了崩溃的边缘。

An aging grid plus a fuel cutoff has pushed the country to the brink of collapse.

然而，真正令人揪心的，从来不是这些冰冷的数字，而是一个个具体的古巴人。

Yet what truly wrenches the heart is never these cold numbers, but the individual Cubans behind them.

在这个常年炎热的岛国，没有了电，家里连一台电扇都无法运转，暑气蒸人。

On this perennially hot island, with no power, not even a fan will turn at home, and the heat is stifling.

入夜后，整座城市漆黑一片，连红绿灯都熄灭了，出行变得险象环生；许多人只能点起蜡烛，做饭没有燃气，便退回院子里生火烧柴。

After dark, the whole city is pitch black — even the traffic lights are out — and getting around becomes perilous; many can only light candles, and with no gas to cook, they retreat to the courtyard to burn firewood.

而所有困境中，最致命的，是医院。

And of all the hardships, the deadliest is at the hospitals.

停电让冰箱失灵，大量药品因此变质，各种依赖电力的仪器也彻底罢工。

The blackouts disable refrigerators, spoiling vast quantities of medicine, and all the power-dependent equipment simply stops working.

联合国一位高级官员为此发出了极其沉重的警告：由于缺乏必要的药品，一些孩子正在死去。

A senior UN official issued a grave warning over this: for lack of essential medicine, some children are dying.

冰冷的数据同样印证了这一切——最近几个月，古巴的婴儿死亡率，几乎翻了一倍。

The cold data bears it out too — in recent months, Cuba's infant mortality has nearly doubled.

那么，特朗普为何非要把古巴逼到如此绝境？

So why is Trump so intent on driving Cuba into such a desperate corner?

说到底，这是一场极限施压：他企图通过让古巴的日子彻底过不下去，来迫使这个坚持了几十年的政府垮台，换上一个亲美的政权。

Ultimately, it's a campaign of maximum pressure: by making life in Cuba utterly unbearable, he aims to topple a government that has held on for decades and install a pro-US regime.

毕竟，美国与古巴之间的这段恩怨，已经纠缠了整整六十多年，如今不过是走到了最激烈的一幕。

After all, the feud between the US and Cuba has festered for a full sixty-plus years; this is merely its most intense act yet.

时间倒回上世纪，古巴走上了一条与美国截然不同的社会主义道路，从那以后，华盛顿对它的封锁，就几乎从未真正松开过。

Back in the last century, Cuba took a socialist road utterly different from America's, and ever since, Washington's blockade has scarcely truly eased.

半个多世纪里，古巴人早已习惯了各种物资的短缺，可即便如此，这一次的能源崩溃，依旧是几十年来最凶险的一回。

Over more than half a century, Cubans have grown used to shortages of all kinds, yet even so, this energy collapse is the most dire in decades.

也正因如此，联合国与众多人权组织纷纷发声，谴责这种做法——因为它真正惩罚到的，是无辜的平民，而非高高在上的当权者。

For that very reason, the UN and many rights groups have spoken out, condemning the approach — because those it truly punishes are innocent civilians, not the powerful in charge.

面对绝境，古巴并非坐以待毙。

Facing this desperate strait, Cuba is not sitting still to await its fate.

它推出了数十年来最大胆的一系列经济改革，同时加快从中国进口太阳能设备，试图把发电的希望，寄托在头顶的阳光上。

It has launched its boldest set of economic reforms in decades, while speeding up solar-equipment imports from China, pinning its power-generation hopes on the sun overhead.

只是，可再生能源目前还只占其消耗的不到两成，要真正顶上缺口，绝非一朝一夕之功。

But renewables currently make up less than a fifth of its consumption; truly filling the gap is no overnight feat.

值得玩味的是，当美国步步紧逼、旧日的伙伴纷纷退场时，向古巴伸出手的，越来越多是中国。

Tellingly, as the US presses harder and old partners bow out, the hand reaching out to Cuba is, increasingly, China's.

从一块块太阳能板，到各种基础设施，中国在整个拉美的身影，正变得越来越清晰。

From solar panels to all manner of infrastructure, China's presence across Latin America is growing ever clearer.

这盘棋，早已不只关乎古巴一国的冷暖。

This game of chess is no longer just about the fortunes of Cuba alone.

在这段看不到尽头的日子里，普通的古巴人，只能在黑暗与高温中，一天又一天地咬牙硬扛。

Through these seemingly endless days, ordinary Cubans can only grit their teeth and endure, day after day, in darkness and heat.

一边，是大国棋盘上冷静的博弈；另一边，是一盏灯、一台风扇，都成了奢望的寻常人家。

On one side, the cool maneuvering on a great-power chessboard; on the other, ordinary households for whom a single lamp or fan has become a luxury.

这中间横亘的巨大落差，才是这则新闻里，最让人沉默的地方。

The vast gulf between them is what, in this story, leaves one most silent.

好，今天这个略显沉重的故事，就聊到这里，我们下期再见。

Okay, that's where we'll leave this somewhat heavy story today; see you next time.