韩国股市为什么这么火？AI、芯片、改革，全在这里

Today let's talk about the Korean stock market — it's been on fire lately.

You may have seen headlines saying "KOSPI hits another new high."

It's real, not an exaggeration.

Let's start with the numbers.

At the end of last year, KOSPI was around 3,000-something points.

In January this year, it hit 4,000.

Then 5,000, 6,000, 7,000 — one level after another.

Just a few days ago, on May 7, it crossed 7,500 intraday.

How much is that?

Year-to-date, KOSPI is up 78 percent.

What does that number mean concretely?

It means: if you had 10,000 yuan in stocks in January, you'd have about 17,800 now.

And only four months have passed.

This gain is the highest in the world this year.

It beat not just the US, China, and Japan, but also India and Europe.

Korea has become the hottest stock market in the world.

Even more impressive: Korea's total stock market value recently passed the UK's, making it the 8th-largest in the world.

Think about that.

Korea has 50 million people; the UK has more than 60 million.

Korea's economy is just over half the size of the UK's.

But on stock market value, the order has flipped.

That alone is pretty dramatic.

So why is this happening?

I think there are three reasons. Let me go through them.

The first, and biggest, is AI and chips.

You know the whole world is racing into AI right now.

Nvidia, Google, Amazon are all desperately building data centers.

Inside these data centers, they need lots and lots of servers.

Inside every server, they need lots and lots of chips.

Especially one type called HBM — full name "high-bandwidth memory."

You don't need to remember the English name.

You just need to know: this is a chip AI absolutely needs.

Without it, Nvidia's cards can't run.

And it's hard to make. Very few companies in the world can.

So who makes HBM?

The best in the world are two Korean companies.

SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics.

These two companies have raked it in this year.

Take Samsung — their Q1 operating profit was up 756 percent year-over-year.

I'm not joking — 756.

That means: where they made 1 yuan in Q1 last year, they made 8.50 this year.

SK Hynix is similar — profits multiplied several times over.

Profits up, stock up.

Samsung is up 82 percent this year; SK Hynix is up 70 percent.

Together they make up half the weight of the entire KOSPI.

When they go up, the whole market goes up with them.

That's reason number one.

AI lifted Korea to where it is now.

The second reason is reforms by Korea's government.

Have you heard the term "Korea Discount"?

It means: equally good Korean companies were cheaper than their foreign counterparts — much cheaper.

Why cheaper?

Because Korean chaebols used to not really care about shareholders.

They didn't want to share profits with stockholders.

The money was kept by the big bosses, or invested in other things.

On top of that, there were lots of related-party transactions, and outsiders couldn't see the real accounts.

Stockholders weren't happy, so they wouldn't pay a high price.

This dragged on for decades, and nobody could fix it.

After new president Lee Jae-myung took office, he wanted to fix it.

He did several things.

First, force companies to pay dividends — profits have to be shared with shareholders.

Second, give tax incentives on dividend income.

Third, push Korea into MSCI's developed-market index.

Putting all this together, foreign investors started thinking: "Hey, Korea is buyable now."

And then everyone piled in.

The government also launched a "KOSPI 5000 Plan" to push the index to 5,000 points.

The result?

It blew past 7,500 — way ahead of the plan.

You can imagine how thrilled the government is.

The third reason is money itself.

Once it starts going up, more people want to buy.

Not just foreigners — Korea's wealthy locals are buying too.

More money, higher prices.

Higher prices, more people want in.

That's the cycle.

The question now is: can it keep going?

First, a detail.

With KOSPI up this much, who actually made the money?

Mostly foreigners, and Korea's rich.

What about ordinary Koreans?

A lot of them missed it.

Some didn't buy at all.

Some bought, but sold after a 10 percent gain.

After they sold, it went up another 50 or 70 percent.

Watching others get rich, they can't sleep.

Korea recently coined a new word — it translates to "envy tax."

It means: watching others get rich while you're left out hurts, and that hurt is its own kind of "tax."

So Korean society is now split into two circles.

On one side, the winners — popping champagne, buying luxury cars.

On the other, the ones who missed it — full of regret and anxiety.

And no bridge between them.

Now let's talk about risk.

Deutsche Bank recently put out a report.

In it, they said: Korea used to be "undervalued"; now it's no longer undervalued — it's "overvalued."

What does that mean?

By looking at the fundamentals, the price has gotten too high.

They didn't say it will definitely fall.

But they did write one sentence: "Over the long run, valuation always wins."

Meaning: you can rise for a while, but you can't rise forever.

One day, prices have to come back.

When?

Nobody knows.

Could be next month, next year, or after doubling again.

Even the smartest people can't predict it.

Let me share my own take.

This Korean rally isn't just hype.

Behind it is real AI demand, real corporate earnings, real profit numbers.

So it's different from a pure bubble in the past.

But rising this fast means someone is going to sell.

Slowly, prices will adjust.

Maybe a small pullback, maybe a big one.

If you're an ordinary listener, the most important thing isn't chasing this rally.

You're too late anyway.

What you should understand is:

The world's most important industries aren't all in the US.

Countries like Korea can sometimes make the most valuable things in the world.

HBM is one example.

Knowing this is far more valuable than making a few bucks.

OK.

Today we talked about why Korea's stock market is rallying.

We talked about AI, chips, reform, and money.

We talked about why ordinary people missed out.

We talked about Deutsche Bank's warning.

Hope this was useful.

That's it for today. See you next time.