习近平与普京的北京会晤——中俄"背靠背"的 30 年

Russian President Putin arrived in Beijing,

beginning a two-day state visit.

On the morning of May 20,

Xi Jinping and Putin held formal talks at the Great Hall of the People.

That same evening,

the two had a tea gathering at the same place.

This was Putin's 25th visit to China.

The 25th time.

This number,

more than any joint statement,

shows the density of China-Russia relations.

Today we won't just talk about this summit itself;

we're going to place it into a longer timeline

in order to understand:

what kind of relationship China and Russia really have.

First let's get the hard content of this summit clear.

2026,

for China and Russia, is a commemorative year.

This year is the 30th anniversary of China and Russia establishing a strategic coordination partnership.

This year is also the 25th anniversary of the signing of the China-Russia Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation.

At this summit,

the two heads of state agreed unanimously:

the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation will continue to be extended.

After the talks,

the two countries signed and issued a joint statement,

the core of which is to further strengthen comprehensive strategic coordination

and deepen good-neighborly and friendly cooperation.

At the same time, they witnessed the signing of 20 cooperation documents in trade, education, science and technology, and other fields.

In addition,

the two countries issued another joint statement,

specifically about "world multipolarity" and "a new type of international relations."

During the visit,

the two countries jointly attended the opening ceremony of the "China-Russia Education Year."

Putin also met separately with Premier Li Qiang

to talk about trade.

These are the "paper results" of the summit.

But to truly understand it,

we need to look back.

First stretch of the timeline: the 1990s.

The Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

Russia had just become independent,

and its economy was a mess.

China at the time was also still in the early stage of reform and opening up.

In 1996,

China and Russia announced the establishment of a "strategic coordination partnership."

This is the starting point that makes this year the 30th anniversary.

In 2001,

the two countries signed the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation.

This treaty contained one very crucial arrangement:

the two countries

basically settled the long-standing border issue.

China and Russia share over 4,000 kilometers of common border.

Historically,

this border saw wars,

and was long a source of mutual wariness between the two sides.

During the Cold War,

China and the Soviet Union even came to armed clashes at one point.

Settling the border issue

meant the two great powers

could close the door behind them

and concentrate on facing forward.

This is the origin of the metaphor "back to back" used later.

Second stretch of the timeline: 2000 to 2014.

During this period,

China-Russia relations rose steadily,

but were not yet as tight as today.

The two countries did business,

but on a limited scale.

Russia was still trying to improve relations with the West,

especially with Europe.

China, meanwhile, was focused on integrating into the global economy,

joining the WTO,

and becoming the "world's factory."

China and Russia back then

were friends,

but each had its own priorities.

Third stretch of the timeline: 2014 to today.

2014 was a turning point.

That year,

because of the Crimea issue, Russia's

relations with the West sharply deteriorated.

The West began to sanction Russia.

Russia then more clearly "looked east,"

relying more on China.

In 2022,

the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in full,

the second

and more dramatic turning point.

After the war,

the West's sanctions on Russia

reached an unprecedented scale.

Russia was shut out of large parts of Western markets,

Western technology,

and the Western financial system.

Against this background,

China's significance to Russia

was magnified.

Russia needed a market to sell oil and natural gas.

China buys.

Russia needed industrial goods, cars, machinery, electronics.

China sells.

In recent years,

China-Russia trade volume has kept rising,

and China has firmly become Russia's largest trading partner.

Energy is at the core of it.

Through the "Power of Siberia" natural gas pipeline, Russia

supplies large amounts of gas to China.

The two sides are also negotiating more energy projects.

So you can see,

today's China-Russia relationship

and that starting point in 1996

are already completely different in scale.

Having understood this timeline,

we can talk more precisely about three questions.

The first question:

are China and Russia actually an "alliance"?

The answer is:

strictly speaking, no.

The standard definition of an alliance is:

signing a binding treaty

stipulating that when one side is attacked,

the other must intervene militarily.

NATO is exactly this kind of alliance.

China and Russia repeatedly emphasize:

the two countries are "non-aligned, non-confrontational, and not targeting any third party."

They have not signed that kind of "must send troops" treaty.

But,

the China-Russia relationship

is also much tighter than an ordinary partnership.

Some scholars call it a "quasi-alliance,"

or "allies without an alliance treaty."

Why not formally ally?

Because for the two countries,

keeping flexibility is more advantageous.

A formal alliance

means you have to take responsibility for every decision the other side makes.

Being non-aligned

means you can support the other side,

but can also, at a critical moment,

keep a little distance.

The second question:

in this relationship,

who needs whom more?

This is an uncomfortable

but very important question.

Before 2014,

China and Russia were broadly equal.

After 2022,

the scales shifted.

After Russia was isolated by the West,

its dependence on China

clearly deepened.

China is its largest buyer,

its largest supplier,

its most important economic outlet.

And China,

though it values Russia,

has economic partners that are global.

China's trade with Europe,

with Southeast Asia,

and with many countries

is all large in scale.

That is to say,

in this relationship,

the degree to which Russia needs China

is somewhat deeper

than the degree to which China needs Russia.

This point,

neither China nor Russia will state openly in public.

But it really does affect the way the two countries deal with each other.

The third question:

what does this summit

mean for the world?

China and Russia this time specifically issued a

joint statement about "world multipolarity."

The word "multipolarity"

China and Russia have been using for many years.

What it means is:

China and Russia believe

the current international order led by America

is unreasonable.

The world should not be decided by one superpower;

there should be multiple centers of power.

From China and Russia's perspective,

this is striving for an international structure more favorable to themselves.

From the West's perspective,

this is two great powers joining hands to challenge the existing order.

Which view is right?

Actually,

these two views

describe the same thing,

just from different positions.

This is the hardest part of international politics:

there is almost no pure "right" and "wrong,"

only different positions

and different interests.

And China, within all this,

is actually in a delicate position.

On one hand, China needs to keep a close relationship with Russia.

On the other hand,

China is the world's second-largest economy,

and its trade ties with Europe

and with developed countries

are crucial to China's own development.

So China's official wording

has always been very careful.

China emphasizes:

on the Russia-Ukraine issue,

China urges peace and promotes talks.

China emphasizes:

China-Russia cooperation does not target any third party.

This carefulness

itself shows:

within the China-Russia relationship, China

has a lot to balance.

Finally,

I want to step outside this summit

and say something more long-term.

Relations between countries

and relations between people

have one big difference.

People make friends

out of liking,

out of trust,

out of feeling.

Countries "making friends,"

in the end,

is because of interests and circumstances.

China and Russia being this close today

has historical reasons —

a 4,000-kilometer border,

the memory of the Cold War,

the experience of the Soviet collapse.

It also has practical reasons —

Russia, isolated by the West,

needs China;

and both China and Russia are dissatisfied with the American-led order.

But interests and circumstances

do change.

During the Cold War,

China and the Soviet Union went from "comrades and brothers"

to rivals on the border.

Later America and China,

because of jointly countering the Soviet Union,

came together.

And later still,

China-U.S. relations grew tense again.

History tells us:

in relations between countries,

the word "forever"

has to be discounted.

So,

when you see news like a "China-Russia summit,"

don't only see "two great powers are close,"

and don't only see "they are confronting the West."

What you should see is:

this is, at a specific point in time

and in a specific international environment,

two countries making a choice

based on their respective interests.

Environments change.

Choices change along with them.

Today's China and Russia

are at the closest stage

in 30 years of relations.

Will it always stay this way?

The lesson of history is:

not necessarily.

Finally I want to ask you a question:

Do you think

between countries

there is really such a thing as true "friendship"?

Or is it that

all "friendship,"

in the end, is just interests?

This question

has no standard answer.

But it's worth thinking about for a long time.

Okay.

That's all for today.

See you in the next story.