说到奥斯卡电影奖的最后投票情况,现在结果已经变得非常让人紧张了。Speaking of the final voting situation for the Oscar film awards, the results have now become very nerve-racking.
最近,奥斯卡奖的最后投票终于结束了。Recently, the final voting for the Oscars finally ended.
如果有人告诉你比赛已经结束了,那他一定是在骗你。If someone tells you the competition is already over, he must be lying to you.
奥斯卡奖一直以来都很神秘,大家通常要到最后时刻才知道结果。The Oscars have always been very mysterious; usually, everyone has to wait until the final moment to know the results.
但是,每一个颁奖季节,总会有一些选票的消息传出来。However, every awards season, there is always some news about the votes that comes out.
这就是我们所说的“匿名选票”,也就是不写名字的投票。This is what we call "anonymous ballots," which means voting without writing one's name.
这些匿名选票已经成为了每年奥斯卡季节的一个重要习惯。These anonymous ballots have become an important habit of the Oscar season every year.
通过这些选票,我们可以看到那些投票的人心里到底在想什么。Through these ballots, we can see what the people voting are actually thinking in their hearts.
他们会非常诚实地告诉大家,他们喜欢什么,讨厌什么。They will very honestly tell everyone what they like and what they hate.
这就像是把奥斯卡好的一面、坏的一面,还有丑的一面都展示了出来。It is like showing the good side, the bad side, and also the ugly side of the Oscars.
我们首先要关注的一个大问题是:投票的人到底在想什么?The first big question we need to pay attention to is: what on earth are the voters thinking?
今年有一个新的规定,这就改变了很多事情。This year there is a new rule, and this changes a lot of things.
这个新规定要求,如果你想在一个奖项里投票,你必须看完所有的提名电影。This new rule requires that if you want to vote in a category, you must finish watching all the nominated movies.
在你看完所有电影之前,你是不能在这个奖项里投票的。Before you finish watching all the movies, you cannot vote in this category.
这个规定让很多人的投票时间变晚了。This rule has made many people's voting time later.
在以前,很多人可能会随便选几个,然后就赶紧把票投出去。In the past, many people might have casually chosen a few, and then hurriedly cast their votes.
但是现在,系统会强迫大家把所有的电影都看完。But now, the system will force everyone to finish watching all the movies.
虽然这主要还是靠大家的自觉,但是这也鼓励了大家去了解更多的电影。Although this mainly relies on everyone's self-discipline, it also encourages everyone to get to know more movies.
在讨论具体的电影之前,我们先看看是谁在投票。Before discussing specific movies, let's first see who is voting.
根据最新的数据,奥斯卡现在有一万多名成员。According to the latest data, the Oscars now have more than 10,000 members.
虽然大部分成员还是美国人,但是最近几年,国际成员和女性成员增加了很多。Although most members are still Americans, in recent years, international members and female members have increased a lot.
演员是其中最大的一个群体,他们对投票结果的影响非常大。Actors are the largest group among them, and their influence on the voting results is very big.
现在,我们来看看这次匿名选票告诉了我们什么重要的消息。Now, let's see what important news these anonymous ballots have told us.
首先,最佳影片的竞争主要集中在两部电影上。First, the competition for Best Picture is mainly concentrated on two movies.
这两部电影分别是《罪人》和《一场接一场的战斗》。These two movies are "The Guilty" and "One Fight After Another."
这两部电影在投票的人心中占据了最重要的位置。These two movies occupy the most important position in the hearts of the voters.
它们太受欢迎了,以至于很难找出第三部能和它们竞争的电影。They are so popular that it is hard to find a third movie that can compete with them.
这两部电影几乎吸引了所有人的注意力。These two movies have attracted almost everyone's attention.
但是,这里面有一个非常有意思的心理现象。However, there is a very interesting psychological phenomenon here.
很多投票的人虽然觉得《一场接一场的战斗》会赢,但是他们自己却投给了《罪人》。Although many voters think "One Fight After Another" will win, they themselves voted for "The Guilty."
这种现象在很多次谈话中都出现了。This phenomenon has appeared in many conversations.
有人说:“我知道《一场接一场的战斗》会得奖,但是我把票投给了《罪人》。Someone said: "I know 'One Fight After Another' will win an award, but I cast my vote for 'The Guilty'."
甚至在最佳导演的投票中,也是这样的情况。Even in the voting for Best Director, it is the same situation.
大家觉得保罗·托马斯·安德森会赢,但是却把票投给了瑞恩·库格勒。Everyone thinks Paul Thomas Anderson will win, but they cast their votes for Ryan Coogler.
这让人想起了几年前的一次奥斯卡颁奖。This reminds people of an Oscar ceremony a few years ago.
当时大家都以为查德维克·博斯曼会赢,结果安东尼·霍普金斯赢了。At that time, everyone thought Chadwick Boseman would win, but in the end, Anthony Hopkins won.
这说明,大家心里的感觉往往比理智的判断更重要。This shows that the feeling in everyone's heart is often more important than rational judgment.
所以,虽然之前的很多奖项都给了安德森,但是库格勒赢的机会还是很大的。So, although many previous awards were given to Anderson, Coogler's chance of winning is still very big.
接下来,我们看看最佳男主角的情况。Next, let's look at the situation for Best Actor.
这个奖项的竞争非常分散,大家的选择都不太一样。The competition for this award is very scattered, and everyone's choices are quite different.
但是有一个名字被提到的次数最多,那就是迈克尔·B·乔丹。But there is one name mentioned the most times, and that is Michael B. Jordan.
他在电影《罪人》里的表演获得了很多人的支持。His performance in the movie "The Guilty" has gained the support of many people.
看起来,他很有希望赢得他人生的第一个奥斯卡奖。It looks like he has a good hope of winning the first Oscar of his life.
不过,他也有两个很强的对手。However, he also has two very strong opponents.
一个是莱昂纳多·迪卡普里奥,他在《一场接一场的战斗》里演得很好。One is Leonardo DiCaprio; he acted very well in "One Fight After Another."
另一个是伊桑·霍克,他在《蓝月亮》里的表演也很精彩。The other is Ethan Hawke; his performance in "Blue Moon" was also wonderful.
如果迈克尔·B·乔丹最后没有赢,那很可能是输给了这两个人中的一个。If Michael B. Jordan does not win in the end, it is very likely that he lost to one of these two people.
至于其他的演员,虽然也有人提到,但是支持的人数没有那么多。As for other actors, although some people mentioned them, the number of supporters is not that large.
除了这些热门的电影,还有一些电影被大家当作“作业”来看。Besides these popular movies, there are also some movies that are treated as "homework" by everyone.
比如《哈姆内特》和《秘密特工》这几部电影。For example, movies like "Hamnet" and "Secret Agent."
很多投票的人直到最后几天才把这些电影看完。Many voters did not finish watching these movies until the last few days.
这对于《哈姆内特》的女主角杰西·巴克利来说,可能是一件好事。This might be a good thing for Jessie Buckley, the lead actress of "Hamnet."
因为大家刚刚看完她的电影,对她的印象还很深。Because everyone has just finished watching her movie, their impression of her is still very deep.
杰西·巴克利是最佳女主角这个奖项里最常被提到的名字。Jessie Buckley is the name most frequently mentioned in the Best Actress category.
大家对她的表演非常热情,很多人都很喜欢她。Everyone is very enthusiastic about her performance, and many people like her very much.
而且,对于那些不喜欢《一场接一场的战斗》的人来说,《哈姆内特》是一个很好的选择。Moreover, for those who do not like "One Fight After Another," "Hamnet" is a very good choice.
当然,凯特·哈德森和艾玛·斯通也有一些支持者。Of course, Kate Hudson and Emma Stone also have some supporters.
但是从目前的选票来看,杰西·巴克利的优势是比较明显的。But judging from the current votes, Jessie Buckley's advantage is relatively obvious.
我们再来看看最佳男配角的竞争。Let's look again at the competition for Best Supporting Actor.
这个奖项主要是在三个演员之间进行。This award is mainly contested between three actors.
一开始的时候,德尔罗伊·林多得到 Support 非常多。At the beginning, Delroy Lindo received a lot of support.
但是,在投票结束前的最后两天,情况发生了变化。However, in the last two days before voting ended, the situation changed.
肖恩·潘的支持率突然增加了很多。Sean Penn's support rate suddenly increased a lot.
他在《一场接一场的战斗》里的表演打动了很多人。His performance in "One Fight After Another" moved many people.
如果他赢了,这将是他的第三个奥斯卡奖。If he wins, this will be his third Oscar award.
另外,斯特兰·斯卡斯加德也是一个不能忽视的对手。In addition, Stellan Skarsgård is also an opponent who cannot be ignored.
因为很多人是最后才看他的电影,所以他的票数可能会在最后时刻增加。Because many people watched his movie only at the very end, his vote count might increase at the final moment.
这真的让结果变得很难预测。This really makes the result very hard to predict.
在最佳女配角方面,情况稍微复杂一点。Regarding Best Supporting Actress, the situation is a bit more complex.
艾米·麦迪根在洛杉矶有很多朋友,这给了她很大的优势。Amy Madigan has many friends in Los Angeles, which gives her a big advantage.
这种“主场优势”在竞争激烈的比赛中是很重要的。This kind of "home court advantage" is very important in fierce competitions.
但是,《罪人》里的乌米·马萨库也非常厉害。However, Wunmi Mosaku in "The Guilty" is also very formidable.
她吸引了两类不同的人。She attracts two different types of people.
一类是特别喜欢《罪人》这部电影的人,他们会把票都投给这部电影的演员。One type is people who especially like the movie "The Guilty"; they will cast their votes for the actors of this movie.
另一类是虽然喜欢《一场接一场的战斗》,但是想在这个奖项上支持别的演员的人。The other type is people who, although they like "One Fight After Another," want to support other actors in this category.
所以,即使是那些支持安德森导演的人,也可能会把票投给乌米·马萨库。So, even those who support Director Anderson might cast their votes for Wunmi Mosaku.
这种广泛的支持可能会帮助她赢得这个奖项。This kind of widespread support might help her win this award.
有位投票的人甚至说,这是他觉得最难选的一个奖项。One voter even said that this is the award he finds hardest to choose.
除了演员的奖项,技术类的奖项竞争也很激烈。Besides the acting awards, the competition for technical awards is also very fierce.
特别是在摄影奖上,有三部电影都有机会。Especially in the Cinematography award, three movies have a chance.
《火车之梦》这部电影的画面非常美,很多专业人士都选了它。The visuals of the movie "Train Dreams" are very beautiful, and many professionals have chosen it.
但是《罪人》也有机会创造历史。But "The Guilty" also has a chance to create history.
如果《罪人》赢了,它的摄影师将成为第一个赢得这个奖项的女性。If "The Guilty" wins, its cinematographer will become the first woman to win this award.
这一点大家都知道,也可能会影响大家的投票。Everyone knows this point, and it might also affect everyone's voting.
虽然《一场接一场的战斗》在之前的其他比赛中赢过,但是一开始在奥斯卡的支持率并不高。Although "One Fight After Another" has won in previous other competitions, its support rate at the Oscars was not high at the beginning.
不过,就像肖恩·潘的情况一样,这部电影的摄影票数在最后一天也增加了。However, just like Sean Penn's situation, the cinematography votes for this movie also increased on the last day.
这说明比赛的结果要到最后一刻才能知道。This shows that the result of the competition can only be known at the very last moment.
另外,电影《弗兰肯斯坦》在美术设计方面很有优势。In addition, the movie "Frankenstein" has a great advantage in production design.
它的服装设计和化妆设计都给观众留下了很深的印象。Its costume design and makeup design have left a very deep impression on the audience.
看起来,它很有可能会拿走这几个技术类的大奖。It looks like it is very likely to take away these few big technical awards.
至于电影剪辑奖,主要是在《罪人》和《一场接一场的战斗》之间竞争。As for the Film Editing award, the competition is mainly between "The Guilty" and "One Fight After Another."
声音效果奖可能属于赛车电影《F1》,但是《罪人》也有机会。The Sound Effect award might belong to the racing movie "F1," but "The Guilty" also has a chance.
总的来说,虽然很多人觉得这是一场两部电影的战争,但是《罪人》的表现非常稳定。Generally speaking, although many people think this is a war between two movies, the performance of "The Guilty" is very stable.
在所有的提名奖项中,《罪人》的支持率都很高。In all nominated categories, the support rate for "The Guilty" is very high.
这对于一部被认为是“感人”而不是“必胜”的电影来说,是非常难得的。This is very rare for a movie considered "touching" rather than a "must-win."
虽然很多人不敢相信,但是《罪人》真的有可能成为历史上获奖最多的电影。Although many people dare not believe it, "The Guilty" really has the possibility of becoming the movie with the most awards in history.
它甚至有可能超过以前那些经典的电影,比如《泰坦尼克号》。It might even surpass those classic movies from before, such as "Titanic."
当然,这只是一种可能,我们还要等信封打开的那一刻才知道。Of course, this is just a possibility; we still have to wait for the moment the envelope is opened to know.
不管结果怎么样,今年的奥斯卡肯定会非常精彩。No matter what the result is, this year's Oscars will definitely be very exciting.
因为大家的选择不仅是看电影的质量,也是在听从自己内心的声音。Because everyone's choice is not only looking at the quality of the movie but also listening to the voice of their own hearts.
这种感性和理性的斗争,正是奥斯卡最吸引人的地方。This struggle between emotion and reason is exactly the most attractive part of the Oscars.
随着投票的结束,所有的悬念都将在颁奖典礼上揭晓。With the end of voting, all suspense will be revealed at the awards ceremony.
对于喜欢电影的观众来说,这绝对是一场不能错过的表演。For the audience who likes movies, this is absolutely a performance that cannot be missed.
无论最后谁赢了,这些优秀的电影都值得我们去电影院好好欣赏。No matter who wins in the end, these excellent movies are worth us going to the cinema to appreciate well.
毕竟,电影的魅力就在于它能带给我们各种各样的感受。After all, the charm of movies lies in the fact that they can bring us all kinds of feelings.
从匿名选票中,我们看到了电影人对艺术的热爱和坚持。From the anonymous ballots, we see the filmmakers' love and persistence for art.
这种热爱,才是奥斯卡奖真正想要庆祝的东西。This kind of love is the thing the Oscar awards truly want to celebrate.
接下来的几天,大家都在等待那个最终的时刻。In the coming few days, everyone is waiting for that final moment.
让我们一起期待这场电影界的盛大聚会吧。Let us look forward to this grand gathering of the film industry together.