今天我们来聊一个正在深刻重塑中国经济版图的话题——十五五规划中的能源战略。Today we're going to discuss a topic that is profoundly reshaping China's economic landscape — the energy strategy within the 15th Five-Year Plan.
二〇二六年三月,全国两会期间,中国正式批准了第十五个五年规划。In March 2026, during the Two Sessions, China officially approved the 15th Five-Year Plan.
这份覆盖二〇二六到二〇三〇年的蓝图,在能源领域释放出的信号,可以说是前所未有的明确:可再生能源不再是配角,而是绝对的主角。This blueprint, spanning from 2026 to 2030, has sent an unprecedentedly clear signal in the energy sector: renewable energy is no longer a supporting player, but the undisputed protagonist.
先说几个关键数字。Let's start with a few key figures.
规划提出,到二〇三〇年,非化石能源在一次能源消费中的占比要达到百分之二十五。The plan stipulates that by 2030, non-fossil energy must account for 25 percent of primary energy consumption.
海上风电装机要突破一亿千瓦,核电装机达到一点一亿千瓦。Offshore wind power capacity is to exceed 100 gigawatts, and nuclear power capacity is to reach 110 gigawatts.
而到二〇三五年,风电加光伏的总装机容量要达到三十六亿千瓦。By 2035, the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power is to reach 3,600 gigawatts.
这意味着什么?What does this mean?
简单算一下,从现在到那时,中国每年需要新增大约两亿千瓦的风光装机。A simple calculation shows that from now until then, China needs to add approximately 200 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity every year.
这个速度,放在全球任何一个国家,都是难以想象的。This pace is virtually unimaginable for any other country in the world.
但真正值得关注的,不是这些数字本身,而是这份规划背后思路的根本性转变。But what truly warrants attention is not these figures themselves, but the fundamental shift in thinking behind this plan.
过去十年,中国在新能源领域的策略,用四个字概括就是"大干快上"。Over the past decade, China's strategy in the new energy sector can be summarized in four characters: "go big, go fast."
光伏板铺满了西北的戈壁,风机矗立在从内蒙古到广东的海岸线上。Solar panels have blanketed the Gobi Desert in the northwest, and wind turbines stand along coastlines stretching from Inner Mongolia to Guangdong.
成效是显著的——此前设定的十二亿千瓦风光装机目标,原本计划二〇三〇年完成,结果二〇二四年就提前达标了。The results were remarkable — the previously set target of 1,200 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity, originally planned for completion by 2030, was achieved ahead of schedule in 2024.
这种执行力,举世瞩目。This execution capability has garnered worldwide attention.
然而,规模扩张带来的问题也日益突出。However, the problems arising from this rapid scaling have also become increasingly pronounced.
弃风弃光——也就是发出来的清洁电力无法被电网消纳,只能白白浪费——在部分地区一度相当严重。Curtailment of wind and solar power — meaning clean electricity that is generated but cannot be absorbed by the grid, wasted entirely — was at one point quite severe in certain regions.
西北地区阳光充沛、风力强劲,但用电需求集中在东部沿海。The northwest has abundant sunshine and strong winds, but electricity demand is concentrated along the eastern coast.
电力的供给和需求之间存在巨大的空间错配。There exists an enormous spatial mismatch between power supply and demand.
你可以把它理解为一个悖论:越是资源丰富的地方,越可能出现"有电送不出去"的困境。You can think of it as a paradox: the more resource-rich an area is, the more likely it is to face the predicament of "having electricity but being unable to transmit it."
十五五规划试图从根本上解决这个问题。The 15th Five-Year Plan attempts to address this problem at its root.
它的核心逻辑,从单纯追求装机规模,转向了系统集成。Its core logic has shifted from the singular pursuit of installed capacity to systemic integration.
什么叫系统集成?What does systemic integration mean?
就是不再孤立地看待每一种能源形式,而是把风电、光伏、水电、核电、储能、输电网络当作一个有机整体来统筹规划。It means no longer viewing each energy form in isolation, but rather planning wind, solar, hydroelectric, nuclear, energy storage, and transmission networks as an organic whole.
具体来说,规划提出了几条清晰的路径。Specifically, the plan has laid out several clear pathways.
第一,强化跨省跨区的电力输送通道。First, strengthening cross-provincial and cross-regional power transmission corridors.
从内蒙古、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、西藏这些清洁能源富集区,建设新的特高压输电走廊,把电力直接送到东部和中部的负荷中心。From clean energy-rich regions such as Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Tibet, new ultra-high voltage transmission corridors will be constructed to deliver electricity directly to load centers in the east and central regions.
这不是新概念,但十五五规划把它提升到了前所未有的战略高度。This is not a new concept, but the 15th Five-Year Plan has elevated it to an unprecedented strategic priority.
第二,构建多能互补的调节体系。Second, building a multi-energy complementary regulation system.
可再生能源最大的软肋是什么?What is the greatest weakness of renewable energy?
太阳落山了光伏就不发电,风停了风机就转不动。When the sun sets, solar panels stop generating electricity; when the wind dies, turbines cease to turn.
规划给出的答案是:用水电和核电作为基础负荷,用抽水蓄能电站作为"巨型电池"来调峰填谷。The plan's answer is: use hydroelectric and nuclear power as baseload, and use pumped-storage hydropower stations as "giant batteries" for peak shaving and valley filling.
中国的水电资源,尤其是西南地区的大型水库,天然具备灵活调节的能力。China's hydroelectric resources, especially the large reservoirs in the southwest, are naturally equipped with flexible regulation capabilities.
核电则提供稳定的基荷电力。Nuclear power provides stable baseload electricity.
抽水蓄能的原理很简单——电力富余时把水从下游抽到上游水库储存起来,需要用电时再放水发电。The principle of pumped-storage is straightforward — when there is surplus electricity, water is pumped from downstream to upstream reservoirs for storage; when electricity is needed, the water is released to generate power.
这种技术成熟、容量大、寿命长,是目前最可靠的大规模储能方式之一。This technology is mature, high-capacity, and long-lasting, making it one of the most reliable large-scale energy storage methods available today.
第三,也是最让人兴奋的部分——规划明确推动绿氢、绿氨、光热发电和地热能的发展。Third, and this is the most exciting part — the plan explicitly promotes the development of green hydrogen, green ammonia, concentrated solar power, and geothermal energy.
这些技术,每一个都值得单独展开讲。Each of these technologies is worthy of an in-depth discussion on its own.
绿氢,顾名思义,是用清洁电力电解水制取的氢气。Green hydrogen, as the name suggests, is hydrogen produced by electrolyzing water using clean electricity.
它的意义在于,氢气可以储存、可以运输、可以作为工业原料。Its significance lies in the fact that hydrogen can be stored, transported, and used as an industrial feedstock.
钢铁冶炼、化工生产、重型运输——这些传统上极度依赖化石燃料的行业,如果能用绿氢替代,减排潜力是革命性的。Steel smelting, chemical production, heavy-duty transportation — these industries that have traditionally been extremely dependent on fossil fuels could see revolutionary emissions reduction potential if green hydrogen were substituted.
而绿氨,也就是用绿氢合成的氨,不仅是重要的化肥原料,还被视为一种极具潜力的零碳燃料,尤其适用于远洋航运。Green ammonia, which is ammonia synthesized from green hydrogen, is not only an important fertilizer feedstock but is also regarded as a highly promising zero-carbon fuel, particularly suited for ocean-going shipping.
光热发电,又叫聚光太阳能热发电,和我们熟悉的光伏板完全不同。Concentrated solar power, also known as concentrating solar thermal power, is entirely different from the photovoltaic panels we are familiar with.
它用镜子把阳光聚焦到一个点,产生高温,然后用蒸汽驱动涡轮机发电。It uses mirrors to focus sunlight onto a single point, generating extreme heat, and then uses steam to drive turbines for electricity generation.
它最大的优势是什么?What is its greatest advantage?
自带储能。Built-in energy storage.
熔盐可以储存热量,在没有阳光的时候继续发电。Molten salt can store thermal energy and continue generating electricity even when there is no sunlight.
这就解决了光伏的间歇性问题。This effectively resolves the intermittency problem of photovoltaic power.
中国的青海、甘肃、新疆,日照条件得天独厚,是发展光热发电的理想之地。China's Qinghai, Gansu, and Xinjiang enjoy exceptionally favorable solar irradiation conditions, making them ideal locations for developing concentrated solar power.
地热能则是另一个被长期低估的清洁能源。Geothermal energy is yet another clean energy source that has been chronically underestimated.
地球内部蕴含的热量几乎是取之不尽的。The heat contained within the Earth's interior is virtually inexhaustible.
中国西藏的羊八井地热电站早在七十年代就开始运行了,但长期以来,地热开发的规模一直不大。China's Yangbajing geothermal power station in Tibet has been in operation since the 1970s, yet for a long time, the scale of geothermal development has remained modest.
十五五规划重新将地热纳入视野,显示出决策层在能源多元化方面的深谋远虑。The 15th Five-Year Plan has brought geothermal energy back into focus, demonstrating the foresight of policymakers in pursuing energy diversification.
从更宏观的视角来看,这份规划传递出一个深层信号:清洁电力不仅仅是能源问题,更是产业战略问题。From a more macroscopic perspective, this plan conveys a profound signal: clean electricity is not merely an energy issue, but a matter of industrial strategy.
规划明确提出,清洁电力将成为未来电力增长的主要来源,并且是工业结构调整的核心驱动力。The plan explicitly states that clean electricity will become the primary source of future power growth and the core driving force behind industrial restructuring.
换句话说,中国不只是要用清洁能源替代煤炭和天然气,更要围绕清洁能源重新构建整个工业体系。In other words, China does not merely intend to replace coal and natural gas with clean energy, but aims to reconstruct the entire industrial system around clean energy.
这意味着什么?What does this mean?
想想看,当电力成本足够低、供应足够稳定的时候,很多原本在经济上不可行的技术路线就变得可行了。Consider this: when the cost of electricity is sufficiently low and the supply sufficiently stable, many technological pathways that were previously economically unviable become feasible.
电解铝用清洁电力,碳排放大幅下降。Aluminum smelting powered by clean electricity would see dramatic reductions in carbon emissions.
数据中心用清洁电力,人工智能的能源焦虑得以缓解。Data centers powered by clean electricity would alleviate the energy anxieties associated with artificial intelligence.
电动汽车用清洁电力充电,才是真正意义上的零排放出行。Electric vehicles charged with clean electricity would constitute genuinely zero-emission transportation.
产业链的每一个环节都会被重新定义。Every link in the industrial chain would be redefined.
当然,挑战也是巨大的。Of course, the challenges are equally immense.
每年新增两亿千瓦的风光装机,对供应链的压力是空前的。Adding 200 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity annually places unprecedented pressure on supply chains.
硅料、锂电池、稀土永磁材料、铜——这些关键原材料的供需平衡,将直接影响规划的推进速度。Polysilicon, lithium batteries, rare earth permanent magnet materials, copper — the supply-demand balance of these critical raw materials will directly impact the pace of the plan's implementation.
此外,特高压输电线路的建设涉及大量的土地征用、环境评估和跨省协调,绝非一蹴而就。Furthermore, the construction of ultra-high voltage transmission lines involves extensive land acquisition, environmental assessments, and cross-provincial coordination, none of which can be accomplished overnight.
而核电的扩张,虽然在技术上日趋成熟,但公众接受度和选址问题始终是敏感话题。As for nuclear power expansion, although the technology is increasingly mature, public acceptance and site selection remain perennially sensitive issues.
还有一个容易被忽视的维度:电力市场化改革。There is also a dimension that is easily overlooked: electricity market reform.
再多的清洁电力装机,如果没有合理的价格机制来引导电力的生产和消费,系统效率就无法真正提升。No matter how much clean power capacity is installed, without rational pricing mechanisms to guide the production and consumption of electricity, system efficiency cannot be truly improved.
中国的电力市场改革已经推进了多年,但省际壁垒、交叉补贴、计划电量与市场电量的冲突,这些深层次的体制性问题依然存在。China's electricity market reform has been advancing for years, yet interprovincial barriers, cross-subsidization, and conflicts between planned and market-based electricity quotas — these deep-seated institutional issues persist.
十五五规划能否在这些领域取得突破,将在很大程度上决定能源转型的质量。Whether the 15th Five-Year Plan can achieve breakthroughs in these areas will, to a significant extent, determine the quality of the energy transition.
放在国际背景下看,中国的这份能源规划,无论从规模还是雄心来说,都是独一无二的。Viewed in an international context, China's energy plan is unparalleled in both scale and ambition.
欧盟的绿色协议、美国的通胀削减法案,都在推动各自的能源转型,但没有任何一个国家或经济体拿出过如此系统、如此具体的路线图。The EU's Green Deal and the United States' Inflation Reduction Act are both driving their respective energy transitions, yet no single country or economic bloc has ever produced such a systematic and detailed roadmap.
这不仅关乎中国自身的碳达峰碳中和目标,也将深刻影响全球能源市场的格局、清洁技术的成本曲线,乃至地缘政治的力量对比。This concerns not only China's own carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets, but will also profoundly influence the structure of global energy markets, the cost curves of clean technologies, and even the balance of geopolitical power.
从十二亿千瓦提前达标到三十六亿千瓦的新目标,从单纯的规模扩张到精细的系统集成,十五五规划标志着中国能源转型进入了一个全新的阶段。From the early achievement of 1,200 gigawatts to the new target of 3,600 gigawatts, from sheer scaling to refined systemic integration, the 15th Five-Year Plan marks China's energy transition entering an entirely new phase.
这不再是一场关于"要不要转型"的争论,而是一场关于"如何转得更快、更稳、更深"的实践。This is no longer a debate about "whether to transition," but a practice of "how to transition faster, more steadily, and more deeply."
未来五年,我们将看到这张蓝图如何一步步变成现实——而它的影响,将远远超出能源行业本身。Over the next five years, we will witness how this blueprint materializes step by step — and its impact will extend far beyond the energy sector itself.